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No. 9191 



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IC 9191 



Bureau of Mines Information Circular/1988 



Behavioral Accident Simulator Computer 
Program User Guide and Technical 
Reference Manual 



By William E. Souder 




UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 





/f^Ut A&&, fl»U4Airf W+") 



Information Circular 9191 



Behavioral Accident Simulator Computer 
Program User Guide and Technical 
Reference Manual 



By William E. Souder 



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 
Donald Paul Hodel, Secretary 

BUREAU OF MINES 
T S Ary, Director 






n# 



.li* 1 



Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data: 



Souder, Wm. E. (William E.) 

Behavioral accident simulator computer program user guide and technical 
reference manual. 

(Information circular; 9191) 

Supt. of Docs, no.: I 28.27:9191. 

1. Mine accidents— Psychological aspects-Mathematical models. 2. Mine 

accidents— Psychological aspects— Data processing. I. Title. II. Series: 

Information circular (United States. Bureau of Mines); 9191. 

TN295.U4 [TN311] 622 s [622'.8] 88-600105 



CONTENTS 

Page 

Abstract . 

Introduction 

Section 1. — Technical summary 

Network flow variables 

Data base and user inputs 

BAS outputs 

Section 2. — Technical guide to using preprocessors 

Environmental conditions (EC) preprocessor scale 

Physiological abilities state (PS) preprocessor scale 

Adjustive behavior (JB) preprocessor scale 

Supervisor abilities (FA) preprocessor scale 

Adjustive behavior override (IF) preprocessor scale 

Psychological conditions (PC) preprocessor scale 

Managerial conditions (MC) preprocessor scale 

Behavioral conditions (BC) preprocessor scale , 

Section 3. — Other input data: Feedback loops 

Feedback concepts 

Building feedback loops 

Setting feedback coefficients 

Se ct ion 4 . — Running BAS 

Setting data values 

Procedures for using IBM PC version of BAS 

Program listing 

Outputs 

Section 5. — Equations « 

Section 6. — Sample cases and printouts 

Case 1 

Case 2 

Case 3 

Case 4 

Case BEST 

Appendix A. — BAS Fortran listing 

Appendix B. — Printouts from BAS for sample cases 

ILLUSTRATION 

1 . BAS network 3 

TABLES 

1. Scale 1, job physical annoyances (PA) 5 

2. Scale 2, production pressure and fatigue (PPF) 5 

3. Scale 3, perceived job-role ambiguity (PJA) 5 

4. Scale 4, perceived economic climate and job rewards (PEC) 5 

5. Scale 5, stressful personal life events (SLE) 6 

6. Scale 6, physiological abilities state (PS) 6 

7. Scale 7, adjustive behavior (JB) 7 

8. Scale 8, supervisor's managerial abilities (FA) 8 

9. Scale 9, adjustive behavior override (IF) 8 



1 


1 


2 


2 


2 


2 


4 


4 


4 


6 


8 


8 


8 


9 


10 


11 


11 


11 


11 


13 


13 


13 


14 


14 


15 


16 


16 


17 


17 


17 


17 


19 


43 



11 



TABLES — Continued 

Page 

10. Scale 10, pattern recognition training (XI) 9 

11. Scale 11, alertness (X2) 9 

12. Scale 12, discriminatory abilities (X3) 9 

13. Scale 13, top management concern for safety (MC) 9 

14. Scale 14, volatility (Yl) 10 

15. Scale 15, machoism (Y2) 10 

16. Scale 16, consistency (Y3) 10 

17. Scale 17, influence (Y4) 10 



BEHAVIORAL ACCIDENT SIMULATOR COMPUTER PROGRAM 
USER GUIDE AND TECHNICAL REFERENCE MANUAL 

By William E. Souder 1 



ABSTRACT 

The behavioral accident simulator (BAS) is a computer program that can 
be used to simulate accident situations. It demonstrates how the poten- 
tial to have an accident grows or diminishes as a result of changes in 
various environmental, organizational, and behavioral factors. It cal- 
culates the number of fatalities that may result from various conditions 
and graphically displays these data. The BAS is useful for studying 
systems of accident causes, for demonstrating the various ways to dimin- 
ish fatalities, and for training employees. This Bureau of Mines report 
provides the detailed instructions needed to use the BAS. 

INTRODUCTION 

This report describes the technical aspects and the use of the behav- 
ioral accident simulator (BAS). The development and construction of the 
BAS is described in Bureau of Mines Information Circular (IC) 9178. 

The BAS allows the user to model accident situations by supplying the 
data for several parameters. Depending on how these data are chosen, 
various environmental, psychological, behavioral, and management factors 
come into play. These factors interact and impact on the BAS data base 
and the BAS network of variables to simulate unsafe acts, accident po- 
tentials, and human accidents. 

The BAS demonstrates how the potential to have an accident grows or 
diminishes as a result of various factors, calculates the number of fa- 
talities that will result if these factors are allowed to remain, and 
graphically displays these results. The BAS is useful for studying sys- 
tems of accident causes and for demonstrating the various ways in which 
fatalities can be diminished. 



i 

'Operations research analyst, Pittsburgh Research Center, Bureau of Mines, Pitts- 
burgh, PA (now with The University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA). 

^Souder, W. E. A Catastrophe-Theory Model for Simulating Behavioral Accidents. 
BuMines IC 9178, 1988, 19 pp. 



SECTION 1.— TECHNICAL SUMMARY 



NETWORK FLOW VARIABLES 

The BAS is a deterministic network flow 
algorithm that uses fixed flow values for 
each route and each node. Except for the 
various parameters and feedback routes 
subsequently described, the configuration 
of the network (numbers of routes, num- 
bers of nodes, locations of routes, and 
values of the routes) cannot be changed 
by the BAS user. 

The network variables are — 

VNI = the network flow value at node I 
= 1 to N nodes in the network; these val- 
ues are outputs from the program, 



and 



VRIJ = the flow frequency of route IJ 
between nodes I and J; these values are 
inputs for the BAS program calculations. 

Figure 1 shows the BAS network model. 
The nodes are not numbered in ascending 
order. Rather, they are uniquely identi- 
fied according to the variables they rep- 
resent, as given in IC 9178. 



is the flow frequency from node I to node 
J in figure 1. For example, VR67 = 0.82 
means that node 6 (carefulness) leads to 
node 7 (safety initiatives) 82% of the 
time. For more details about these and 
other variables in the BAS see IC 9178. 

Another input to the program consists 
of 17 parameters that are specified by 
the BAS user to model particular situa- 
tions or conditions. These parameters 
are organized into eight network prepro- 
cessors (fig. 1): the environmental con- 
ditions (EC) preprocessor, the physiolog- 
ical abilities state (PS) preprocessor, 
the adjustive behavior (JB) preprocessor, 
the supervisor abilities (FA) preproces- 
sor, the adjustive behavior override (IF) 
preprocessor, the psychological condi- 
tions (PC) preprocessor, the managerial 
conditions (MC) preprocessor, and the 
behavioral conditions (BC) preprocessor. 
The BAS user makes changes in the 17 pa- 
rameters, which cause changes in these 
preprocessors. The preprocessors then 
impact on the data base of VRIJ's and the 
network node system. This produces the 
outputs from the BAS. 

BAS OUTPUTS 



DATA BASE AND USER INPUTS 

One portion of the BAS computer program 
consists of a fixed data base of 32 VRIJ 
numbers. These numbers are an integral 
part of the BAS. They were empirically 
derived from actual accident situations 
in underground mining as discussed in 
IC 9178. Though they are inputs to the 
BAS algorithm, they are not manipulatable 
by the user. Rather, they are part of a 
fixed data base that is under the control 
of the BAS computer program. Each VRIJ 



The BAS program calculates, interprets, 
and prints out the network flow values at 
each of the numbered nodes in the network 
in figure 1, with node 27 being the final 
terminus. The network flow values are 
designated as VNI for value at nodes I 
=1 to N. These values represent the 
accident system entropies of each state 
(node) in the system. Several levels and 
types of interpretive reports are avail- 
able on these flows, as specified by the 
user. 



Psychological 
variables 



Behavioral 
variables 



Management 
variables 




KEY 
CO — **Q) Variable I leads to variable J 

[*1 User inputs that define 
preprocessors 
*- Feedback loops 

(l) Preprocessors, calculated from 

user inputs 



(fa* 




LS 


IF 




IA 
TP 


& 


1 - 


PP 
CS 








DA 



FIGURE 1.-BAS network. 



SECTION 2. —TECHNICAL GUIDE TO USING PREPROCESSORS 



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (EC) 
PREPROCESSOR SCALE 

Behavioral accidents result from the 
dynamic interplay of many opposing 
forces, cumulating and building to a cre- 
scendo that causes the individual to 
commit an unsafe, irrational act (see 
IC 9178). Environmental conditions are 
one of the important forces that lead to 
behavioral accidents, because they result 
in a kind of psychological overload or 
underload within the individual. The end 
result of this chain of events can be 
inattention, dissatisfaction, boredom, 
recklessness, f orgetfulness , fatigue, and 
shortened reaction times. Such situ- 
ations carry a high potential for an 
accident. 

Thus, the following five variables are 
used in the environmental preprocessor. 
The symbols in parentheses are the vari- 
able names that are used in the BAS com- 
puter program. 

1. Job physical annoyances (PA). The 
more dirty and annoying the job, the 
higher the potential for accidents. 

2. Production pressure and fatigue 
(PPF). Felt pressures to get out the 
product can directly affect one's mental 
acuity and physical efficiency, thus 
resulting in increased potentials for 
accidents. 

3. Perceived job-role ambiguity (PJA). 
An individual who does not understand the 
nature and importance of his/her job in 
the total mine system is subject to a 
variety of noxious impacts that favor 
accidents. 

4. Perceived economic climate and job 
rewards (PEC). The more the employee 
feels trapped in an underpaid, lowly es- 
teemed job, the greater the potential for 
accidents. 

5. Stressful personal life events 
(SLE). The death of a spouse, a personal 



financial problem, etc. , can severely 
hamper one's job performance and lead to 
accidents. 

To obtain the data for the above five 
variables, the BAS user consults the se- 
ries of scales in tables 1, 2, 3, 4, and 
5. For example, if the job is "very 
clean and very quiet," the BAS user rates 
the variable PA as "low" and correspond- 
ingly sets PA = 10 as shown in table 1. 
Note that these scales are illustrative 
only. Scale positions and corresponding 
values in between those shown for "low" 
and "high" can be added by the user by 
interpolation in tables 1, 2, 3, and 4. 
Scale positions and values can similarly 
be added between "maximum" and "none" in 
table 5. The BAS uses a series of equa- 
tions (see section 5) to combine the data 
for these five variables into the envi- 
ronmental preprocessor, EC, which eventu- 
ally enters node 9 in figure 1. 

PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES STATE (PS) 
PREPROCESSOR SCALE 

If the individual experiencing the var- 
ious environmental conditions also has 
some physiological inabilities (e.g. , im- 
paired hearing, poorly developed muscle 
structures), his/her accident potential 
may thereby be increased. Following are 
four physiological inabilities: 

1. Inadequate physical strength, 

2. Physical impairment, 

3. Improper or inadequate training for 
the job, 



and 



4. Working when physically injured. 

The BAS uses a variable "physiological 
abilities state" (PS) to represent these 
conditions. The scale for the PS vari- 
able is shown in table 6. 



TABLE 1. - Scale 1, job physical annoyances (PA) 



Scale position 


Scale jposition description 


PA = 




This job is very clean and very quiet. 

This job is "about average" for cleanliness and quietness 
of environmerat ("what one would expect, not too bad for 
what it is, typical for this industry"). 

This job is excessively noisy, dusty, dirty and environ- 
mentally abrasive ("cannot hear yourself think, covered 
with grime at the end of the shift, about the worst job 
there is for dirt and noise"). 


10 




40 


High 


100 



TABLE 2. - Scale 2, production pressure and fatigue (PPF) 



Scale position 


Scale position description 


PPF = 




Personnel are generally well rested, have not recently 
experienced many pressures to produce, and are not 
preoccupied with achieving high outputs at the expense 
of safety or personal health. 

There is concern for output, though the environment 
and/or management does not excessively emphasize this 
aspect. 

Personnel feel excessive pressures to get out the product 
and they are weary from their efforts. 


10 




50 


High 


100 



TABLE 3. - Scale 3, perceived job-role ambiguity (PJA) 



Scale position 


Scale position description 


PJA = 




This job or role is well defined, the responsibilities 
and duties are well understood by all and the perfor- 
mance standards are well established. 

This job or role is not well defined, there is some 
uncertainty as to the duties and responsibilities, and 
the performance standards are only partially 
established. 

This job or role is undefined, there is total uncertainty 
about the duties and responsibilities, and there are no 
established performance standards. 


10 
60 


High 


100 



TABLE 4. - Scale 4, perceived economic climate and job rewards (PEC) 



Scale position 


Scale position description 


PEC = 


High 


Personnel are satisfied with the rewards and climate. 

There is some dissatisfaction, but it is only moderate 
and confined to a few persons. 

Personnel feel underpaid and underappreciated. 


10 
40 




100 







TABLE 5. - Scale 5, stressful personal life events (SLE) 1 



Scale position 



Scale position description 



SLE = 



Maximum. 

Extreme. 

Do 

Do 

Do 



Major. 
Do.. 
Do.. 
Do.. 
Do.. 
Do.. 
Do.. 
Do.. 
Do.. 



Minor, 
Do.. 
Do.. 
Do.. 
Do.. 
Do.. 
Do.. 
Do., 
Do., 



Events create stresses beyond the extreme. 

Death of loved one or close family member. 

Divorce , 

Separation from spouse , 

Jail term , 



Injury or personal illness (serious) 

Marriage 

Health change of family member 

New family member, e.g. , a new baby. 

Business readjustment 

New mortgage 

Foreclosure on home or car, etc 

Work assignment change 

On-job argument with supervisor 



Son or daughter leaving home 

In-law problems 

Wife starts or stops working outside home. 

Work hours change 

Residence change , 

Vacation , 

Christmas , 

Minor violations of the law , 

On-job arguments with peers , 



None No events of any significance. 



100 

75 
75 
75 
75 

50 
50 
50 
50 
50 
50 
50 
50 
50 

25 
25 
25 
25 
25 
25 
25 
25 
25 





If more than one stressful personal life event exists, use the highest scoring SLE 
and discard the others. 



Source: Rahe, L. 0. , and T. H. Holmes. Scaling of Life Change: Comparison of 
Direct and Indirect Methods. J. Psychosom. Res. , v. 15, No. 3, 1971, pp. 223-226. 

TABLE 6. - Scale 6, physiological abilities state (PS) 



Scale position 


Scale position description 


PS = 




The individual is physically qualified and physiologi- 
cally adequate for this job. 

The individual is physically inadequate and/or not physi- 
cally qualified to do this work. 


1 
2 







ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (JB) 
PREPROCESSOR SCALE 

The potential to have an accident can 
either be lessened or further enhanced, 
depending on the adjustive behaviors and 



coping mechanisms the individual brings 
to play in reacting to the environment. 
For instance, if the individual reacts 
by becoming aggressive (e.g. , "get out 
of my way, I'll fix that thing!"), the 
potential for an accident can suddenly 



escalate at an exponentially increasing 
rate. But, suppose the individual en- 
gages in some adaptive mechanisms, i.e., 
he/she calmly considers the options and 
adapts his/her behavior to the circum- 
stances. Then the accident potential 
may diminish, along with the originally 
perceived stresses. The individual who 
stops and asks himself /herself "why am 
I upset by this?" is on the way to an 
adjustive behavior that reduces his/her 
potential to have a behavioral accident. 



Table 7 lists six individual adjustive 
behaviors, i.e., ways the individual may 
react to the stressors. The BAS uses the 
variable JB to represent these behaviors. 
The BAS user must specify a value for JB, 
using the scales shown in table 7. The 
BAS uses a set of equations to combine 
the environmental conditions (EC) and 
adjustive behavior (JB) scores into EC 
which is one of the inputs to node 9 in 
figure 1. 



TABLE 7. - Scale 7, adjustive behavior (JB) 



Adjustive behavior 


JB = 


Examples of this type of reaction 


or reaction 











Fixation = stubborn, persistent nonadjustive reaction in 
the face of cues that this is ineffective behavior. 










Displacement = misplaced direction of pent-up emotions 






toward the "wrong" object. 




1 


Fantasy = imaginative activity as an escape. 

Regression = regression to infantile behaviors, in search 










of solace. 






Repression = burying psychologically disturbing events 






from one's consciousness. 






Flight = physical or mental departure from a psychologi- 






cally painful situation. 




2 


Replacing the urge with a higher level substitute, but 
never fully resolving the original issue. 








3 


Identification = patterning one's acts after another who 
is seen as having higher status. 










Projection = attributing one's own failings to others. 




4 


An adjustment wherein the individual changes behaviors, 
attitudes, or values to accommodate a stimulus, but 










fails to make a permanent and complete internal recon- 






ciliation. Hence, recidivism to a lower level reaction, 






e.g. , aggression, may appear when the same stimulus 






reappears. 




5 


A complete resolution of the issues by consultative 
session(s) between the employee and all other affected 
parties. 



SUPERVISOR ABILITIES (FA) 
PREPROCESSOR SCALE 

The ability of the supervisor to ob- 
serve and identify stressors as they 
emerge, to perceive the buildup of behav- 
ioral accident potentials within the in- 
dividual, and to intervene at the appro- 
priate time are key elements in producing 
an effective adjustive behavior that re- 
duces accident potentials. Environmental 
conditions, plus the individual's physio- 
logical abilities state, create accident 
potentials. The individual's adjustive 
behavior, plus the supervisor's abil- 
ities, either reduce or enhance the acci- 
dent potentials. 

The supervisor's abilities are scored 
along the six dimensions listed in table 
8. The greater the supervisor's abil- 
ities, the lower the likelihood that an 
accident will occur. The supervisor is 
scored either "1" if he/she has this 
ability (he/she is "good" at it), or "0" 
if he/she does not have this ability (he/ 
she is not "good" at it), for each of the 
six dimensions in table 8. The super- 
visor's total score, FA, is the sum of 
the dimension scores (the l's and 0's). 
For example, a "perfect" supervisor would 
have FA = 6. 

TABLE 8. - Scale 8, supervisor's 
mangerial abilities (FA) 



Dimension 



Dimension 
score 



Leadership skill (LS) 1 or 

Interpersonal skill (IA) 1 or 

Technical ability (TP) 1 or 

Planning proficiency (PP) 1 or 

Communication ability (CS).... 1 or 

Directing skill (DA) 1 or 

ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE 
(IF) PREPROCESSOR SCALE 

Whatever the supervisor's managerial 
abilities (FA) score, his/her score may 
be overridden. For example, a "good" 
supervisor may not have any effect on the 
individual, or a "bad" supervisor may be 
ignored by the individual. To illustrate 



this suppose FA = 0, but the individ- 
ual's behavior = 5. That is, even though 
this is the worst possible supervisor, 
the individual is able to fully adjust to 
the situation. To represent this, i.e., 
the individual does not depend on the 
supervisor and can achieve adaptation 
without the supervisor, IF = 1.0 must be 
used. See table 9 for more details. 

TABLE 9. - Scale 9, adjustive 
behavior override (IF) 



Case condition or situation 



IF = 



The individual adjusts his/her own 
behavior without the supervisor's 
involvement 1 

The supervisor influences the indi- 
vidual's adjustive behavior 

PSYCHOLOGICAL CONDITIONS (PC) 
PREPROCESSOR SCALE 

To be able to avoid accidents, one must 
be able to perceive various cues and pre- 
cursors of pending accidents. One must 
also be able to discriminate between 
appropriate and inappropriate actions. 
For example, when following another car 
on the highway, a small puff of white 
smoke from the tailpipe of the car ahead 
often indicates the driver's foot has 
left the accelerator and the driver is 
preparing to stop. An appropriate action 
for the following driver might be to step 
on the brake. But this might not be 
appropriate on an icy highway, or where 
many cars are closely following each 
other. Thus, judgments are required. 
One thing that can aid this judgment is 
formal training in pattern recognition. 
For example, formal training in the types 
of smoke patterns that come from the 
car's exhaust just before deceleration 
and acceleration can make a driver more 
alert to such conditions and their mean- 
ings. In the BAS , these concepts are 
combined through a series of equations 
to create a psychological conditions pre- 
processor. This preprocessor results in 
a value for PC, which enters node 14 in 
figure 1. 



To obtain the input data for the psy- 
chological conditions preprocessor, the 
user must supply data for the following 
parameters: XI, X2, and X3. To supply 
these data, the user consults the scales 
shown in tables 10, 11, and 12. 

MANAGERIAL CONDITIONS (MC) 
PREPROCESSOR SCALE 

The amount of concern for safety shown 
by top management can "set the stage" for 



safe behaviors. Using the scale in ta- 
ble 13, the BAS user can specify the 
degree of top management concern for 
safety. Additional scale values may be 
specified by interpolation. Note that 
the BAS user must use the decimal when 
entering any data for this variable. The 
value of MC is used in a series of equa- 
tions to produce SC, which enters node 21 
in figure 1. 



TABLE 10. - Scale 10, pattern recognition training (XI) 



Scale position 


Scale position description 


XI = 


Yes 


This person has recently received formal training in pat- 
tern recognition. 

This person has not recently received such training. 


1 


? 







TABLE 11. - Scale 11, alertness (X2) 



Scale position 


Scale position description 


X2 = 




This person is a poor observer who misses many details and 
cues that most people would see. 


1 




This person is a good observer who sees many things that 
most people would miss. 





? 














TABLE 12. - Scale 12, discriminatory abilities (X3) 



Scale position 


Scale position description 


X3 = 




This person would not know the appropriate actions to take 
in a sudden emergency, would not know what to do, or how 
to handle it. 


1 




This person would know the appropriate actions to take in 
a sudden emergency. 





? 














TABLE 13. - Scale 13, top management concern for safety (MC) 



Scale position 


Scale position description 


MC = 


Maximum concern. . . . 




1 






.5 


Minimal concern. . . . 








10 



BEHAVIORAL CONDITIONS (BC) 
PREPROCESSOR SCALE 

Persons who consistently take unneces- 
sary risks or act in a macho fashion may 
have (or cause) more accidents than less 
radical-behaving persons. This might be 
especially so where others emulate this 
behavior. Even persons who occasionally 
act in radical ways may have (or cause) 



more accidents than those who consis- 
tently behave more conservatively. Thus, 
these considerations are combined through 
various equations to calculate BC , the 
behavioral preprocessor, which enters 
node 22 in figure 1. The BAS user con- 
sults the scales shown in tables 14, 15, 
16, and 17 to define the four parameters 
that are the components of BC. 



TABLE 14. - Scale 14, volatility (Yl) 



Scale 


position 


Scale position description 


Yl = 


High... 




This person often goes off half-cocked or sledom "looks 
before he/she leaps," is an emotional thinker, plans lit- 
tle, or takes unnecessary risks. 


1 






This person plans a great deal, considers every alterna- 
tive action before committing to one action, and is 
normally a rational thinker. 











? 










TABLE 15. - Scale 15, machoisra (Y2) 



Sea 


le 


position 


Scale position description 


Y2 = 


High. 






This person has a need to demonstrate his/her "manliness," 
does things "his/her own way," conventional ways of doing 
things. 


1 








This person has high regard for conventional rules and 
seldom "shows off." 













? . 












TABLE 16. - Scale 16, consistency (Y3) 



Scale position 


Scale position description 


Y3 = 


High 


This person shows predictable, consistent behavior from 
day to day. 

This person shows inconsistent behavior from one day to 
the next. 


1 



? 






TABLE 17. - Scale 17, influence (Y4) 



Scale position 


Scale position description 


Y4 = 


High 




1 







i 








11 



SECTION 3. — OTHER INPUT DATA: FEEDBACK LOOPS 



FEEDBACK CONCEPTS 

Behavioral reinforcement feedbacks can 
occur as a result of any personal, vicar- 
ious, or social learning experience. A 
person who does something once with fa- 
vorable results is likely to do it again 
(personal learning experience). A person 
may try something simply because he/she 
thinks about it longingly and the idea is 
appealing (vicarious learning). In addi- 
tion, a person may copy the behaviors of 
his/her peers (social learning). 

Personal experiences and social learn- 
ing may not by themselves change behav- 
iors. However, they may affect a per- 
son's psychological set, which can then 
change that person's behaviors. To il- 
lustrate, suppose a person is not charac- 
teristically highly impulsive. But one 
day, in a hurry, the person makes a snap 
judgment on the basis of scanty informa- 
tion. Let us further suppose that al- 
though this snap judgment used a faulty 
decision process, an accident did not re- 
sult. Because of this experience, the 
next time the person encounters a situ- 
ation like this one, the person's cogni- 
tive decision process (psychological set) 
and the person's impulsivity (behavior) 
may be out of character. That is, the 
person may try to repeat the most recent 
snap decision and quick behavior. The 
point is that one successful snap deci- 
sion (behavior) can alter one's psycho- 
logical set (cognitive decision-making 
process). This is a feedback effect, as 
opposed to the main effect running from 
psychological set to behavior. For many 
individuals, such feedbacks may be 10% or 
20% as important as the main effect. 

BUILDING FEEDBACK LOOPS 

The BAS allows the user to build three 
independent feedback loops into the net- 
work. As shown by the broken lines in 
figure 1, these three are from node 15 
to node 9, from node 16 to node 9, and 
node 27 to node 22. The feedback loop 
from node 27 to node 22 means that once 
node 27 has reached its terminus, it can 
feed back into node 22. This feedback 



says that once poor employee judgments 
(node 27) occur, they can further de- 
crease an individual's degree of compli- 
ance with safe procedures (node 22). 
This, in turn, feeds back into the indi- 
vidual's judgments (node 27), causing 
those judgments to be even poorer than 
they would have been without feedbacks. 
Similarly, the feedback loop from node 
15 to node 9 causes individuals to have 
lower self-control. And the feedback 
loop from node 16 to node 9 causes indi- 
viduals to be more impulsive. For more 
details about these variables, the reader 
is referred to IC 9178. 

To include any feedback loop, the user 
simmply inputs a feedback coefficient, 
FCJI for that particular feedback route 
JI, corresponding to forward loop IJ. 
The FCJI numbers, which must be less than 
1.0, represent the portion of the vlue of 
direct route IJ to be attributed as the 
value of feedback route JI. For example, 
FC159 = 0.20 means that the value of the 
feedback route from node 15 to node 9 in 
figure 1 is 20% of the value of the route 
from node 9 to node 15. The feedback 
variables are — 

FCJI = feedback coefficient for feed- 
back route JI (input) 

VFRJI = value of feedback route JI 
(output from the BAS). 

Normally, feedback coefficients will not 
exceed 0.50. Typically, feedback coef- 
ficients range from 0.10 to 0.30. The 
choice of an appropriate feedback coeffi- 
cient is a matter of the user's judgment. 

SETTING FEEDBACK COEFFICIENTS 

Normally, on the average, involvement 
in a group situation will reinforce indi- 
vidual human behaviors about 20% of the 
time. This means that if an individual 
is impulsive and the other group members 
copy this behavior, their behavior will 
in turn cause the individual to be 20% 
more impulsive. This would be coded in 
the BAS as a feedback coefficient of 
0.20. Specifically, three feedback loop 



12 



commands will appear when running the 
BAS: "INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 
25 TO 13," "INPUT FC VALUES FOR FEEDBACK 
LOOP 24 TO 13," and "INPUT FC VALUES FOR 
FEEDBACK LOOP I TO C." Here, FC is the 
feedback coefficient. In the general 
case, each of these commands would be re- 
sponded to by typing in the number 0.20. 

If the user feels that the group is 
more influential, then the value of the 
coefficient should be increased to 0.30, 
0.40, etc. As noted above, numbers 
greater than 0.50 would be extraordinary. 
For example, a feedback, coefficient of 
0.60 for poor self-control (feedback from 
node 15 to node 9) says that every act of 
poor self-control by the individual is 
perfectly copied 60% of the time by all 
the group members, and this is then per- 
fectly recopied by the individual 100% 
of the time. The net result is that the 
individual now demonstrates 60% self- 
control as a resu t of interactions with 
the group. A 20% feedback is more typ- 
ical, e.g., individual behaviors are 
normally no more than about 20% more 
pronounced as a result of interacting 
with behavior-reinforcing peers. For 
less influential groups, the coefficient 
should be accordingly decreased, i.e., a 
person may be only slightly influenced by 
his/her peers. 

The presence of three feedback loops 
within the BAS provides great flexibility 
in modeling group influences, as follows. 
For example, suppose the BAS user feels 
that Mr. ABC, who is being modeled in the 
BAS, is basically an impulsive person. 
Suppose the BAS user feels that this is 
likely to cause other persons who work 
around Mr. ABC to become more impulsive. 
And suppose the BAS user feels that this 
will, in turn, further reinforce Mr. ABC 
to become even more impulsive. This is 
the essence of group-individual behav- 
ioral feedbacks. In this case, the feed- 
back loop from node 16 to node 9 in fig- 
ure 1 should be coded in the BAS to 
reflect this. Thus, in response to the 
BAS program command "INPUT FC VALUES FOR 
FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13" the BAS user 
would enter a number between 0.0 and 1.0. 
This is the feedback coefficient or FC 
value, as noted above. As noted above, 



the FC values should not exceed 0.50, 
and the usual value is 0.20. Note that 
this command refers to the feedback loop 
from node 25 to node 13, while figure 1 
numbers the nodes differently. This is 
simply an artifact of the computer pro- 
gram node numbering system and is of 
no consequence to the BAS user. All the 
user needs to remember is which loop con- 
trols which variables. 

The feedback loop from node 15 to node 
9 in figure 1 allows the BAS user to mod- 
el group influences having to do with 
poor self-control. For example, suppose 
the BAS user feels that Mr. ABC lacks 
self-control. That is, he "flies off the 
handle" at slight provocations or other- 
wise appears to lack the ability to main- 
tain a studied, logical approach to 
threats and cries. Assume that the BAS 
user feels this will diminish the self- 
control of others around Mr. ABC. And 
assume the BAS user feels that their di- 
minished self-control will eventually 
cause Mr. ABC to have even less self- 
control. This is the essence of group- 
individual behavioral feedbacks. Then, 
in response to the command "INPUT FC 
VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13," the 
BAS user would enter a number between 0.0 
and 1.0, as discussed above for feedback 
loops. 

The feedback loop from node 27 to node 
22 in figure 1 allows the BAS user to 
model feedbacks due to poor judgments. 
If the BAS user feels the individual be- 
ing modeled in the BAS exhibitts poor 
judgment, and that this individual will 
be subject to group-individual behavioral 
feedbacks , then this is the feedback loop 
that should be used. In response to the 
command "INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 
I TO C," the BAS user would enter a num- 
ber between 0.0 and 1.0, analogous to the 
above discussions for the other feedback 
loops. 

In summary, there are three feedback 
loops. The command "INPUT FC VALUE FOR 
FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13" is for impulsiv- 
ity. The command "INPUT FC VALUE FOR 
FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13" is for self- 
control. And the command "INPUT FC VALUE 
FOR FEEDBACK LOOP I TO C" is for poor 
judgment. The normal FC value is 0.20. 



A larger or smaller number is used when 
each of these feedback effects is larger 
or smaller, respectively, than normal. 

Since feedbacks are the result of group 
phenomena, breaking up the group, remov- 
ing the influential person causing the 
problem, reassigning some personnel to 
other locations, or intervening in the 



13 



group processes are the typical means for 
diminishing these phenomena. Training, 
close supervision, or setting a better 
example for the group are some typical 
ways of intervening. Thus, the BAS may 
be used to test the impacts of various 
actions or interventions. 



SECTION 4.— RUNNING BAS 



SETTING DATA VALUES 

The BAS will run with or without feed- 
back loops. The BAS will run with all 
the preprocessors set at their rainimums, 
i.e., preprocessors are not used. How- 
ever, when any preprocessor is used, care 
must be taken to set its parameters in a 
way that accurately refelcts the scenario 
that the user derives to simulate. 

PROCEDURES FOR USING IBM PC 3 
VERSION OF BAS 

Callup procedures will vary, depending 
on the nature of the personal computer, 
e.g. , whether it is an IBM or some other 
IBM-compatible machine, whether the pro- 
gram is stored on a hard disk or a floppy 
disk, the name it is stored under, etc. 
Typically, if the program is stored on a 
floppy disk, after booting and entering 
the current date and time, the user will 
see the name of the program appear on the 
screen. In some other systems, a cursor 
will apear and the user must enter the 
program name for the keyboard. The pro- 
gram is usually stored under some name 
like "BAS" or "FLOW 1," which is its For- 
tran name. After the program is called 
up, dialog with the program can begin. 
The questions to be answered and the 
actions to be taken by the user will au- 
tomatically be displayed on the screen. 
Simply answer the questions as they ap- 
pear, with the aid of the appropriate 
scales in tables 1 through 17 and the 
above discussions. 

^Reference to specific products does 
not imply endorsement by the Bureau of 
Mines. 



After the last question, "ENTER A NAME 
FOR THIS CASE" will appear on the screen. 
You may enter any combination of four 
digits or four letetrs as the case name. 
If you enter more than four characters, 
the computer will truncate it to four 
characters. Then the prompt "NAME UNIT 
6" will appear on the screen. You will 
then have four options. Enter "PRN" to 
have all the results of the questions 
printed out on the printer. Enter "CON" 
to have all the results of the ques- 
tions appear only on the screen. Enter, 
"MYFILE" to have all the results of 
the questions stored on a computer disk, 
under the file name MYFILE (or any oth- 
er name you have entered). Enter "CTRL 
P" to have all the results of the 
questions printed out on the printer 
and to appear on the screen simultane- 
ously. (Note: CTRL is the "control" 
key. You must press the CTRL and P keys 
simultaneously. ) 

Anytime you wish to stop the program, 
just simultaneously press the CTRL and S 
keys. To start the program once you have 
stopped it, press any key. When the pro- 
gram is finished, it will give you a list 
of "DO YOU WANT TO" commands and a menu. 
You may now continue according to the 
menu or terminate your work. Should you 
want to print any file stored on a com- 
puter disk before you turn off the com- 
puter, e.g. , a file named "MYFILE," sim- 
ply turn on the printer by simultaneously 
pressing the CTRL and P keys and enetr 
"TYPE MYFILE" at the keyboard. An alter- 
nate method is to use the copy command, 
e.g., type "COPY MYFILE PRN" at the key- 
board. Should you want to delete a file, 
e.g. , a file named "TREES" that you have 
previously stored on the disk, simply 



14 



type "DEL" and the name of the file, 
i.e., "DEL TREES." To scan the disk, to 
see what is stored there, simply enter 
"DIR" and the screen will display the 
file names that are stored on the disk. 

PROGRAM LISTING 

The Fortran program listing is shown in 
appendix A. Users may want to develop 
their own programs around this listing. 

OUTPUTS 

Several types of reports are available 
to the user. These may be obtained by 
simply typing "1" when the BAS accord- 
ingly queries the user. 

Sample output reports are presented in 
appendix B. The report entitled "THE 
INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE:" is simply 
a listing of the input data, so that the 
user can check them. Note that because 
of programming conventions and restruc- 
tions, some of the parameter identifi- 
cations in the printouts are different 
from those shown in figure 1. In par- 
ticular note the following parameter 
identifications: 



EC*. 


In 


f 


Lgure 1 — 


In 


appendix B — 
PI13 


PC. . 










VN23 


sc. . 










VNA 


MC. . 










XNA 


BC. . 










VNCI 


FA. . 










XMA 


IF. . 










AJBO 












XAJB 



Another report is the "DETAILED OUTPUT 
REPORT." The entropy values in this re- 
port are the cumulative flows at each of 
the nodes in figure 1. This report is 
very useful for following the buildup of 
flows through the network. Note that 



because of the way the computer program 
assigns node numbers, the node numbers in 
the printouts are not the same as those 
shown in figure 1. In particular, note 
the following node numbers: 

In appendix B as 



q 


In figure 1 — 


value at node (VN) 
13 


a 




J 


14 




11 


1 s 




24 


?? 




C 


6 




10 


16 




25 


7 




12 


?7 




I 






16 



All the other node numbers are the same. 
Note also that VRCI has a constant value 
of 1.0 so that VFRIC = FCIC x VRCI = FCIC 
in the printouts in appendix B. In gen- 
eral, most users will not care to see 
the "DETAILED OUTPUT REPORT" and they may 
not wish to request it. Alternatively, 
they can allow it to print out and sim- 
ply ignore it. Users who wish to use it 
will find more information about it in 
IC 9178. 

In the "SUMMARY REPORT," the %MAX SCORE 
is the raw score divided by the maximum 
value for that type of error, for the 
data provided to the BAS. The message 
"A BEHAVIORAL THRESHOLD WAS PENETRATED" 
signifies that a jump shift occurred in 
the cusp catastrophe model. For more 
details on this, see IC 9178 and see the 
discussions in the following section 
concerning the cusp catastrophe model 
equations. 

The "MANAGEMENT REPORT" summarizes the 
fatality likelihoods and the "% FATALI- 
TIES BY SOURCES." It also graphically 
displays the %MAX SCORE data from the 
"Summary report." 



15 



SECTION 5. —EQUATIONS 



Several equations and mathematical ex- 
pressions are used within the BAS , as 
indicated in figure 1: 

1. Environmental preprocessor. 

EC = (TH1 + TH2/10.5) 1/2 /l.5. 

The variables TH1 and TH2 are Fortran 
variables only. They are explained in 
item number 5 below. The constants 10.5 
and 1.5 are scale values. EC is the val- 
ue of the environmental preprocessor that 
eventually feeds node 9 of the network in 
figure 1. 

2. Psychological preprocessor. 
PC = 0.55 + (X2/1.6667 

+ X3/2.50) - Xl/2.0. 

Here, 0.55 is a scale factor and the di- 
visors are normalizing and/or eighting 
factors. Subtracting the value for XI 
compensates for the effects of training. 
Thus, 0.50 < PC < 1.550. The parameter 
PC feeds node 14 in figure 1. 

3. Management preprocessor. 

SC = (1 - MC) + (1 - MC) 2 /2.0 

+ 0.05. 

Here, 0.05 is a scale factor and the sec- 
ond term causes SC to become an exponen- 
tial function of MC. Note that 0.05 < SC 
< 1.55. The parameter SC feeds node 21 
in figure 1. 

4. Behavioral preprocessor. 

BC = ((Yl + Y2)/2.0) x (Y3) 
x (Y4) + 0.55. 



Here, 0.55 is a scale factor and the 
first term is the average of the Yl and 
Y2 values. Y3 = 1 or 0.6667, depending 
on whether consistency occurs and Y4 - 1 
or 0.75 depending on whether emulation 
occurs (see IC 9178). Thus, 0.44 < BC 
< 1.550. The parameter BC feeds node 22 
in figure 1. 

5. Threshold values. 

TH1 = ((PJA + PEC + SLE)/95) 

x PA x 1.667. 
TH2 = ((PA + PPF + SLE)/95) 

x PS x 1.667. 

Here, 95 and 1.667 are scale factors. If 
either of the Fortran variables TH1 or 
TH2 are greater than 2.0, a behavioral 
threshold is penetrated and the exponen- 
tial cusp catastrophe equations prevail 
as discussed below. 

6. Cusp catastrophe model. 

XP13 = ((0.3 x TH1/10) 2 ) 1/3 

YP13 = ((0.3 x TH2/10) 2 ) 1/3 

CP13 = (XP13 + YP13) x 1.18. 

Here, 0.3, 10, and 1.18 are scale fac- 
tors. XP13, YP13, and CP13 are Fortran 
variables only. The value of CP13 is the 
behavioral response (anger, etc.), which 
is to be offset by either the super- 
visor's skills (FA) or the individual's 
adjustive behaviors (JB). 

7. Behavior decay. 

EC* = DP13 - x, where 



16 



DP13 = (TH1 + TH2/10.5) 1/2 /1.5 and 

TH1 < 2.0 or TH2 < 2.0, 

where TH1 and TH2 are as defined in item 
5 above, and DP13 and x are Fortran vari- 
ables. Here the variable x takes on the 
sequential values 0.10, 0.20, etc., cor- 
responding to JB = 1, 2, etc. This equa- 
tion causes the accident-provoking behav- 
ior to decay, i.e., just the opposite of 
the equations in item 6 above (which 
cause the accident-provoking behaviors to 
exponentially explode). 

8. Behavioral accident potential, 

BAP. 

BAP = EC* - FA*/10 for behavior 
decay, and 

BAP = CP13 - (FA*) 2/3 for the cusp 
catastrophe case. 

9. The recursive, sequential VNI 

calculations. 

VNI = VNX * VRXI + SUM 

Here, X is the node immediately pre- 
ceding node I and SU, is the sum of the 



value of all other recursives entering 
any node I. 

10. Percent deaths, PD. 
For < Z < 30, 

PD = 0.2667Z + 4.0. 
For 30 = Z < 90, 

PD = 1.067Z - 20.0. 
For 90 = Z < 00, 

PD = 0.3333Z + 46.0. 

Here, Z is the Fortran variable VNK where 
K is the output of the final network 
node K. These three equations combine 
to form a piecewise linear approximation 
to the continuous, S-shaped function PD 
= ((Z) ae ) be where b,0 and e = 2.718 +. 

11. Chances of being killed, XIC. 

XIC = (VNK/137.3) x 12.5 

Here, the constants 137.3 and 12.5 are 
scale factors. 



SECTION 6. —SAMPLE CASES AND PRINTOUTS 



Appendix B contains the sample out- 
puts from the BAS for the following cases 
1, 2, 3, 4, and BEST. For more details 
on the form of these printouts see the 
above section "Outputs." 

CASE 1 

Frank is assigned to one of the dirti- 
est and least attractive jobs at the XYZ 
mine. Frank believes he is generally un- 
derpaid, he works a lot of overtime, and 
he feels as though he is under a great 
deal of pressure to "get out the prod- 
uct." Frank's philosophy is "you gotta 
fight everybody just to stay even in this 
life." Frank is a generally aggressive 
person with many pent-up emotions and 



a stressful home life. He is a poor 
observer, often flies off the handle 
and is prone to react inapproriately to 
emergencies. He has a consistent need to 
demonstrate his "Machoism," and he thinks 
training "is for sissies." Unfortunate- 
ly, about 20% of the time, Frank influ- 
ences his peers to act like him. Frank's 
supervisor is technically competent. But 
the supervisor is an inadequate planner, 
director, and leader; has poor interper- 
sonal skills; and does not communicate 
well with the crew. It should be noted 
that top management at the XYZ mine is 
very safety conscious. 



Using scales 1-17 (tables 1-17), 
case was coded as follows: 



this 



17 



PA 


= 


100 


PPF 


= 


100 


PJA 


= 


100 


PEC 


= 


100 


SLE 


= 


100 


PS 


= 


1.0 


JB 


= 


0.0 


FA 


= 


1.0 


IF 


= 


0.0 


XI 


= 


0.0 


X2 


= 


1.0 


X3 


= 


0.0 


MC 


= 


1.0 



Yl = 1.0 

Y2 = 1.0 

Y3 = 0.0 

Y4 = 1.0 

Based on the above discussions on feed- 
back, loops ("Building Feedback Loops"), 
let it be assumed that 20% of the time, 
as stated above in the case, Frank's 
behavior feeds back into the behavior 
of others. Therefore, FC2413 = FC2513 
= FCIC = 0.20 (20% feedback). 

CASE 2 

Assume Frank's old supervisor is re- 
placed by a new superior-performing su- 
pervisor. The corresponding change in 
the input data from case 1 is FA = 6.0. 



CASE 3 

Assume Frank and his coworkers are all 
transferred to a better job (or assume 
that the old job is improved), such that 
the physical annoyances, production pres- 
sures, job ambiguity, and economic re- 
wards are as good as they can be. The 
corresponding changes in the input data 
from case 2 are PA = PPF = PJA = PEC 
= 10.0. 

CASE 4 

Given the potentials for perverse col- 
league influences (Yl = Y2 = 1.0 and Y4 
= 1.0), let us see what might happen if 
the work clique is broken up by trans- 
ferring Frank and his colleagues to work 
stations where they do not come into con- 
tact with each other. Hence, let us as- 
sume that this eliminates the old 20% be- 
havior feedbacks. The changes from case 
3 are FC2413 = FC2513 = FCIC = 0.0. 

CASE BEST 

The best possible conditions are 

PA = PPF = PJA = PEC = 10.0 

SLE = 0.0 

PS = 1.0 

JB = 0.0 

FA = 6.0 

IF = 0.0 

XI = 1.0 

X2 = 0.0 

X3 = 0.0 

MC = 1.0 



18 



Yl = Y2 = Y4 = 0.0 BC = 0.275 

Y3 = 1.0 SC = 0.050 

FC2413 = FC2513 = FCIC = 0.0 PC = 0.050 

Note that the above inputs will cause the The printouts from the BAS for these five 

preprocessors to go to their minimum cases are shown in appendix B. 



values, i.e. , 

BAP = 0.0000 



19 



APPENDIX A.—BAS FORTRAN LISTING 

C THIS IS THE FORTRAN PROGRAM FINAL FOR FLOW1 

CHARACTER*5 CSNO 

GO TO 2007 
C WHEN MORE THAN ONE CASE IS BEING RUN, MAY KEEP SAME REPORT 
FORMAT 

1701 CONTINUE 

1700 WRITE(V(A)')' DO YOU WANT TO KEEP THE SAME REPORT 
FORMATS?' 

WRITE(V(A)')' TYPE 1 FOR YES, FOR NO' 

READ(*,1200)ISAME 

IF(ISAME.EQ.l) GO TO 2001 

GO TO 2005 

1200 F0RMAT(I2) 

1201 FORMAT(Fl.O) 

1202 F0RMAT(A5) 

1203 FORMAT (F6.0) 

1204 FORMAT (6A6) 

1205 F0RMAT(F6.2) 
2007 CONTINUE 

C NETWORK FLOW DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS; OUT =0.0 IF NOT DESIRED, 
C 1.0 IF DESIRED 

GO TO 2005 
2055 IREP = 1 

C RESET REPORT FORMATS ONLY 
2005 WRITE(*,'(A)')' IF YOU WISH TO SEE DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 0' 

READ(*,1201) OUT 

IF(OUT.EQ.O)GO TO 2000 
C IF FLOW IS TO OTHER PART OF THE PROGRAM, RETURN IT TO 2004 
2004 CONTINUE 
C GIVE A CHOICE OF EXTRA REPORTS TO BE TYPED 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' THERE ARE A VARIETY OF REPORTS AND GRAPHS 
WHICH YO 
1U' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' MIGHT LIKE TO HAVE PRINTED OUT. 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' TYPE 1 TO CHOOSE ONE OR MORE. OTHERWISE 
TYPE 0' 

READ(*,1201) STAGF 

IF(STAGF.EQ.O) GO TO 2000 
C NETWORK FLOW SUMMARY REPORT; SOUT=0.0 IF NOT DESIRED, 1.0 IF 
DESIRED 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE NETWORK FLOW SUMMARY 
REPORT 
1' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 0' 

READ(*,1201) SOUT 

IF (SOUT.EQ.O) GO TO 2003 
C IF THE PROGRAM GOES TO ANOTHER AREA RETURN TO 2003 
2003 CONTINUE 
C MANAGEMENT REPORT; REM=0.0 IF NOT DESIRED, 1.0 IF DESIRED 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' IF YOU WANT TO SEE THE MANAGEMENT REPORT, 
TYPE 1, 

10THERWISE TYPE 0' 

READ(*,1201)REM 



20 



IF(GRF.EQ.O) GO TO 2000 
C IF THE FLOW GOES TO ANOTHER PART OF THE PROGRAM RETURN TO 2000 
C 
C IF NO REPORT FORMS WERE CHOSEN, FURTHER PROCESSING WOULD BE REDUNDANT 

IF(OUT.EQ.l) GO TO 2000 

IF(SOUT.EQ.O) GO TO 2006 

GOTO 2001 
2006 WRITE(V(A)T NO REPORT FORMATS WERE CHOSEN. AN OUTPUT MUST BE 
1CH0SEN' 

GO TO 2005 
C 

2000 0UT=1 

2001 CONTINUE 

IF (IREP.EQ.l) GO TO 994 
C INPUT DATA FOR THE VN23 PARAMETERS. 

1820 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER DATA FOR THE PSYCHOLOGICAL STATE PRE-PROCESS 
10R' 

WRITE(V(A)T ENTER ONLY OR 1, NO OTHER' 

WRITE(V(A)')' FOR TRAINING: 1 = PERSON HAS BEEN TRAINED IN PATTE 
1RN RECOGNITION' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' = NO TRAINING, OR DO NOT KNOW' 

READ(*,1201)X1 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR ALERTNESS: 1 = POOR OBSERVER, MISSES DETAILS' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' = HIGHLY ALERT, VERY OBSERVANT OR DO NOT KNOW' 

READ(*,1201)X2 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES: 1 = POOR DISCRIMINAT 
10R' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' PERSON MIGHT NOT KNOW APPROPRIATE ACTION IN AN EME 
1RGENCY' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' = GOOD DISCRIMINATOR, KNOWS APPROPRIATE ACTION 
1R DO NOT KNOW' 

READ(*,1201)X3 
C CALCULATE PSYCHOLOGICAL PRE-PROCESSOR; 1ST CALCULATE NORMALIZED VALUES 

EX1 = (Xl)/2.0 

EX2 = (X2)/1.6666 

EX3 = (X3)/2.5 
C CALCULATE NODE 23 VALUE 

VN23 = 0.55 + (EX2 + EX3) - EX1 

IF(ICHGP.EQ.l) GO TO 994 
C INPUT DATA FOR THE MANAGEMENT VNA PARAMETERS 
1840 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER DATA FOR MANAGERIAL PRE-PROCESSOR' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' YOU MAY ENTER ANY NUMBER FROM TO 1.0; ' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' MODAL VALUE = 0.50' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' 1.0 = TOP MANAGEMENT SHOWS THE MAXIMUM CONCERN POS 
1SIBLE' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR SAFETY; = TOP MANAGEMENT SHOWS MINIMUM ' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' CONCERN FOR SAFETY. VALUES RANGE FROM TO 1.0.' 

READ(*,1205)XNA 
C CALCULATE MANAGEMENT PRE-PROCESSOR; CALCULATE EXPONENTIAL COMPONENT 

ADD = ((l-XNA)**2)/2.0 
C DETERMINE VALUE AT NODE A 

VNA = (1-XNA) + ADD + 0.05 

IF(ICHGM.EQ.l) GO TO 994 
C INPUT DATA FOR THE VNCI PARAMETERS 



21 



1830 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER DATA FOR BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSOR' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR VOLATILITY: 1 = PERSON IS UNINFORMED,' 

WRITE(V(A)')' GOES OFF HALF-COCKED OR SELDOM LOOKS BEFORE HE LEA 
IPS' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' OR TAKES UNNECESSARY RISKS' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' = LOW OR NO RISK TAKING, OR DO NOT KNOW 

READ(*,1201)Y1 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR MACHOISM: 1 = DOES THINGS HIS OWN WAY, HAS ' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' LITTLE REGARD FOR RULES, CONVENTIONS OR PROCEDURES 
1' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' = LOW MACHOISM OR DO NOT KNOW' 

READ(*,1201)Y2 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR CONSISTENCY: 1 = PERSON SHOWS CONSISTENT BEH 
1AVI0RS' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' = BEHAVIORS CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY, OR DO NOT KN 
10W' 

READ(*,1201)Y3 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOR INFLUENCE: 1 = OTHERS OFTEN EMULATE HIS BEHAVI 
10R' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' = OTHERS DO NOT EMULATE HIS BEHAVIOR, OR DO NOT 
1KN0W 

READ(*,1201)Y4 
C BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSOR, CALCULATE CORE VARIABLE 

WYE1 = (Yl)/2.0 

WYE2 = (Y2)/2.0 

CORE = (WYE1 + WYE2) 

IF(Y3.EQ.l) GO TO 333 

CON = CORE +0.55 

GO TO 334 
C DISCOUNT THE CORE VARIABLE FOR CONSISTENCY 

333 CON = (CORE + 0.55) * 0.6667 

334 IF(Y4.EQ.O) GO TO 335 

C DETERMINE THE VALUE AT NODE C 

VNCI = CON 

GO TO 336 
C DISCOUNT THE CON VARIABLE IF THE PERSONS PEERS ARE NOT INFLUENCED 
C AND DETERMINE THE VALUE AT NODE C 

335 VNCI = 0.75 * CON 

336 CONTINUE 

C 1920 WRITE(*,'(A)')' YOU MUST ENTER EITHER A OR 1 . ' 
1920 CONTINUE 

IF(ICHGB.EQ.l) GO TO 994 
C INPUT DATA FOR THE THREE FEEDBACK COEFFICIENTS 

1860 WRITE(*,'(A)')' DO YOU WANT TO INCLUDE FEEDBACK LOOPS? TYPE 1 FOR 
1 YES' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' TYPE FOR NO.' 

READ(*,1200)IFEED 

IF(IFEED.EQ.O) GO TO 1900 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13.' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' VALUES CAN BE FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE = .20' 

READ(*, 1205) FC2513 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' VALUES CAN BE FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE = .20' 

READ(*,1205) FC2413 



22 







WRITER 


V(A)') 


' INPUT 


FC VALUE FOR 


FEEDBACK 


LOOP I 


TO C 






WRITER 


,'(A)') 


' VALUE! 


5 CAN BE FROM 


TO 1.0; 


MODAL 


VALUE = 






READ(*, 


1205)FCIC 














GO TO 1910 












190 


FC2513= 


0.0 
















FC2413= 


0.0 
















FCIC=0. 















191 


VRCI = 


1.0 
















IF(ICHGF.EQ.l) 


GO TO 994 








C 


INPUT DATA 


FOR THE 


THIRTY- 


■TWO ROUTE VARIABLES 






C 


FOLLOWING ARE " 


DETERMINISTIC ROUTE 


VARIABLES 










VRA2 = 


.74 
















VR2J = 


.82 
















VRJ16 = 


= 1.0 
















VRA16 = 


■■ .85 
















VR2313 


= .84 
















VRJ13 = 


= .86 
















VR13C = 


= .93 
















VR2312 


= .89 
















VRA12 = 


= .84 
















VRC12 = 


= .85 
















VR2324 


= .88 
















VR1324 


= .76 
















VR2325 


= .86 
















VR1325 


= .81 
















VRC10 = 


■ .77 
















VR1610 


= .84 
















VRJ10 - 


= .71 
















VR2310 


= .76 
















VR1210 


= .85 
















VR2510 


= .73 
















VR1011 


= .82 
















VRA11 -- 


- .87 
















VRJ11 = 


= .83 
















VRC11 = 


= .88 
















VR2511 


= .69 
















VR11I = 


= .75 
















VR2I = 


.73 
















VRJI = 


.65 
















VR13I = 


= .89 
















VR12I = 


= .85 
















VR25I = 


= .79 
















VR24I . 


- .85 













20' 



C INPUT DATA TO RUN THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PROCESSOR 

1811 WRITE(V(A)')' ENTER DATA FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PROCESSOR SCA 
1LES.' 

WRITE(V(A)T IF YOU CANNOT DETERMINE A SCALE VALUE, TYPE 0' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' TO ABORT THE PROGRAM.' 
1303 WRITE(V(A)')' ENTER THE SCALE VALUE FOR JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCE 

(1PA)' 

WRITE(V(A)')' RANGE 10-100, 10=LOW' 

READ(*,1203)PA 

IF(PA.EQ.O)GO TO 994 

IF(PA.LT.IO.OR.PA.GT.IOO) GO TO 1301 



IF(IEPR.EQ.l) GO TO 1810 
GO TO 1302 
C ERROR ROUTINE HERE 

1301 WRITE(V(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' 
WRITE(6,620)PA 

GO TO 1303 

1302 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIGUE 
1 (PPF)' 

WRITE(V(A)')' RANGE 10-100, 10=L0W 
READ(*,1203)PPF 
IF(PPF.EQ.0)G0 TO 994 
IF(PPF.LT.IO.OR.PPF.GT.IOO) GO TO 1304 
IF(IEPR.EQ.2) GO TO 1810 
GO TO 1305 
C ERROR ROUTINE HERE 

1304 WRITE(*,'(A)T ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' 
WRITE(6,620)PPF 

GO TO 1302 

1305 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR PERCEIVED JOB AND ROLE AMBIGUITY 
1 (PJA)' 

WRITE(V(A)')' RANGE 10-100, 10=LOW 
READ(*,1203)PJA 
IF(PJA.EQ.O) GO TO 994 
IF(PJA.LT.IO.OR.PJA.GT.IOO) GO TO 1306 
IF(IEPR.EQ.3) GO TO 1810 
GO TO 1307 
C ERROR ROUTINE 

1306 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' 
WRITE(6,620)PJA 

GO TO 1305 

1307 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR PERCEIVED ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND J 
10B ' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' REWARD (PEC). RANGE 10-100, 10=HIGH' 
READ(*,1203) PEC 
IF(PEC.EQ.O) GO TO 994 
IF(PEC.LT.10.0R.PEC.GT.100)G0 TO 1308 
IF(IEPR.EQ.4) GO TO 1810 
GO TO 1309 
C ERROR ROUTINE 

1308 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' 
WRITE(6,620)PEC 

GO TO 1307 

1309 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR STRESSFUL PERSONAL LIFE EVENTS 
l(SLE)' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER ANY NUMBER FROM TO 100. ' 
WRITE(*,'(A)')' 100 = MAXIMUM, = NO STRESSFUL EVENTS' 
READ(*,1203)SLE 

IF(SLE.LT.O.OR.SLE.GT.IOO) GO TO 1310 
IF(IEPR.EQ.5) GO TO 1810 
GO TO 1311 
C ERROR ROUTINE 

1310 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' 
WRITE(6,620)SLE 

GO TO 1309 



24 



1311 WRITE(V(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITY STATE (PS 

1)' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER EITHER 1 OR 2. 1=ADEQUATE, 2=INADEQUATE' 
READ(*,1201)PS 
IF(PS.EQ.O) GO TO 994 
IF(PS.LT.1.0R.PS.GT.2) GO TO 1312 
IF(IEPR.EQ.6) GO TO 1810 
GO TO 1313 
C ERROR ROUTINE 

1312 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' 
WRITE(6,620)PS 

GO TO 1311 

1313 WRITE(*,'(A)')' DETERMINE THE VALUE OF FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIE 
IS (XMA)' 

WRITE(V(A)T RATE THE FOLLOWING SIX CRITERIA, EITHER 1 OR 0' 
WRITE(*,'(A)')' 1 = HE HAS THE SKILL; 0= HE DOES NOT HAVE THE SKIL 
IV 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' LEADERSHIP SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' 
READ(*,1201)XM1 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' INTERPERSONAL SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' 
READ(*,1201)XM2 

WRITE(*,'(A)T TECHNICAL SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' 
READ(*,1201)XM3 

WRITE(V(A)T PLANNING SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' 
READ(*,1201)XM4 

WRITE(V(A)T COMMUNICATION SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' 
READ(*,1201)XM5 

WRITE(V(A)')' DIRECTING SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 0' 
READ(*,1201)XM6 
XMA=XM1+XM2+XM3+XM4+XM5+XM6 
IF(XMA.GT.6) GO TO 1314 
GO TO 1315 

1314 WRITE(V(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' 
WRITE(6,620)XMA 

GO TO 1313 

1315 WRITE(V(A)T ENTER ONE NUMBER FOR ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIORS (XAJB)' 
WRITE(V(A)')' CHOOSE EITHER: 0=AGGRESSION, ^WITHDRAWAL, 2=SUBLIM 

1ATI0N' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' 3=C0MPR0MISE, 4=ADAPTATI0N, 5=C0NSULTATI0N' 
READ(*,1203)XAJB 
IF(XAJB.GT.5) GO TO 1316 
IF(IEPR.EQ.8) GO TO 1810 
GO TO 1317 

1316 WRITE(V(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' 
WRITE(6,620)XAJB 

GO TO 1315 

1317 WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER A VALUE FOR ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJB 
10)' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER 1 IF INDIVIDUAL ADJUSTS OWN BEHAVIOR WITHOUT 
1' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' FOREMAN INVOLVEMENT OR' 

WRITE(*,'(A)')' ENTER IF FOREMAN CONTROLS INDIVIDUALS ADJUSTIVE' 
WRITE(*,'(A)')' BEHAVIOR' 
READ(*,1203)AJB0 



25 



1318 



C 
1319 

200 
300 
400 
500 
510 
520 
521 
530 
531 
532 
533 
534 
535 
540 
541 
600 
601 
602 
604 
605 
606 
607 
608 
609 
610 
611 
612 
613 
614 
615 
616 
620 
650 
660 
700 
710 
711 
712 
713 
714 
715 
716 
717 
718 
720 



IF(AJBO.LT.O.OR.AJBO.GT.l) GO TO 1318 

IF(IEPR.EQ.9) GO TO 1810 

GO TO 1319 

WRITE(V(A)')' ERROR IN INPUT DATA, CHECK VALUES AND START OVER' 

WRITE(6,620)AJBO 

GO TO 1317 

IF(IEPR.EQ.IO) GO TO 1810 
IF(ICHGE.EQ.l) GO TO 994 



FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 
FORMAT 



21X,'VN2=',3X,F7.3,3X,'VNJ=',3X,F7.3) 

21X, , VN16=\2X,F7.3,3X,'VN13=\2X,F7.3) 

21X,'VNC=',3X,F7.3,3X,'VN12=',2X,F7.3) 

21X,'VN24=',2X,F7.3,3X,'VN25=\2X,F7.3) 

21X,'VN10=\2X,F7.3,3X,'VN11=',2X,F7.3) 

21X,'VNI=',3X,F7.3) 

2X, 'ERROR IN FC DATA') 

30X, 'ENTROPY VALUES') 

21X, 'ENTROPY VALUES WITH FEEDBACK') 

29X,'LOOP 24 TO 13') 

29X,'LOOP 25 TO 13') 

33X,'AND') 

29X,'LOOP I TO C) 

21X,' ') 

24X,A20,1X,' = \F6.3) 

A1,1X,' = \F7.3) 

36X,A6,1X,' = \F6.3) 

38X,A6,2X,' =',F6.3) 

20X,'THE FEEDBACK COEFFICIENTS ARE:') 

27X, 'NETWORK FLOW OUTPUTS') 

20X,'THE PRE-PROCESSORS ARE:') 

36X,A6,1X,'=',F6.1) 

26X, 'DETAILED OUTPUT REPORT') 
31X,'CASE:\A5) 
F7.3,2X,F7.3,2X,F7.3,2X,F7.3,2X,F7.3,2X,F7.3,2X,F7.3) 
9X,'THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE:') 
2X, 'ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI13)') 
4X,A38,' = \F7.2) 



(II 



2X, 

2X, 
2X, 



PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23)') 
TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA)') 
BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI)') 



'YOU ENTERED SCALE VALUE \F4.0) 

'TYPE 1 TO SEE A-D,R-T. OTHERWISE TYPE 2.') 

27X, 'SUMMARY REPORT') 

13X,' 

14X, 'RESULTS AT LAST CYCLE:') 

36X,'RAW\4X,'%MAX') 

35X, 'SCORE', 3X, 'SCORE') 

35X,' \3X,' ') 

10X, 'BEHAVIORAL ERRORS ' ,7X,F5. 1,4X,F4.0) 
10X, 'PSYCHOLOGICAL ERRORS' ,5X,F5. 1,4X,F4.0) 
10X, 'MANAGEMENT ERRORS' ,8X,F5. 1,4X,F4.0) 
27X, 'MANAGEMENT REPORT') 



') 



26 



721 FORMAT(' \13X,' 

722 FORMAT (' ' ,4X,F5.1,1X, '% OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING 
2 'THESE CIRCUMSTANCES') 

723 FORMATC \15X,'MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR') 
725 FORMATC ',5X,'THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED', 

2' UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES') 



') 



727 FORMATC 

800 FORMATC 

801 FORMATC 

810 FORMATC 

811 FORMATC 

813 FORMATC 

814 FORMATC 

815 FORMATC 

816 FORMATC 

817 FORMATC 

818 FORMATC 

819 FORMATC 

820 FORMATC 

821 FORMATC 

822 FORMATC 

823 FORMATC 

824 FORMATC 

825 FORMATC 

850 FORMATC 

851 FORMATC 
C 

1850 CONTINUE 
C USER WILL ENTER 
WRITE(V(A 
WRITE(V(A 
IT NAME:' 
READ(*,1202 
WRITE(6,700 
WRITE(6,700 
WRITE(6,700 
WRITE(6,700 
WRITE(6,609 
WRITE(6,611 
WRITE(6,700 
WRITE(6,612 
WRITE(6,613 
WRITE(6,613 
WRITE(6,613 
WRITE(6,613 
WRITE(6,613 
WRITE(6,613 
WRITE(6,613 
WRITE(6,613 
WRITE(6,613 
WRITE(6,700 



,20X, 



>**> 



' ,15X, 'ARE' , 1X,F4.2, IX, ' IN 10') 
\18x|'N0 BEHAVIORAL THRESHOLD WAS PENETRATED') 
\18X,'A BEHAVIORAL THRESHOLD WAS PENETRATED') 
\26X,'% FATALITIES BY SOURCES') 

\19X,' 

\17X,'100-',20X,'**') 

',17X,'100-') 

',20X,'-',20X,'**') 

',3X,'% FATALITIES', 3X, '50- 

\20X,'-') 

',19X, '0-',20X,'**') 

',3X,'% FATALITIES', 3X, '50- 

\32X,' ') 

',30X,' ') 

\32X,' ') 

',32X,' BEHAVIORAL SOURCES') 

',30X, 'PSYCHOLOGICAL SOURCES') 

\32X,' MANAGEMENT SOURCES') 

\A6,2X,A10) 

',16X,' 



609 



') 



') 



') 



WRITE(6 
WRITE(6 



614 
613 



A CASE IDENTIFIER (CSNO) SEE FORMAT 

')' ENTER A NAME FOR THIS CASE :' 

')' EACH RUN OF THIS PROGRAM WILL HAVE A UNIQUE 5-DIGI 

CSNO 



CSNO 



'JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) \PA 
'PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF)',PPF 

'PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) \PJA 

'ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) \PEC 

'STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) \SLE 

'PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) \PS 

'FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) \XMA 

'ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) \XAJB 

'ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) \AJBO 



'TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) \X1 



27 



WRITE(6,613)'ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) \X2 

WRITE(6, 613) 'DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) ',X3 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,615) 

WRITE(6, 613) 'CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) \XNA 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,616) 

WRITE(6, 613) 'VOLATILITY (Yl) ',Y1 

WRITE(6,613)'MACHOISM (Y2) ',Y2 

WRITE(6, 613) 'CONSISTENCY (Y3) \Y3 

WRITE(6,613)' INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) \Y4 

WRITE(6,700) 
C DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE FOREMAN CONTROLS ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIORS 
C IF AJBO = 1.0 THEN HE DOES NOT AND THE VALUE XAJB PREVAILS 

IF (AJBO.EQ.l) GO TO 63 

IF (AJBO.EQ.O) GO TO 64 

63 AJB = XAJB 
GO TO 39 

64 CONTINUE 

C DETERMINE WHICH ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OCCURS UNDER THE FOREMAN'S CONTROL 

IF (XMA.EQ.6) GO TO 52 

IF (XMA.EQ.5) GO TO 54 

IF (XMA.EQ.4) GO TO 56 

IF (XMA.EQ.3) GO TO 58 

IF (XMA.EQ.2) GO TO 60 

IF (XMA.LT.2) GO TO 61 
52 AJB=5.0 

GO TO 62 
54 AJB = 4.0 

GO TO 62 
56 AJB = 3.0 

GO TO 62 
58 AJB - 2.0 

GO TO 62 

60 AJB = 1.0 
GO TO 62 

61 AJB = 0.0 

62 CONTINUE 

C CALCULATE INDIVIDUAL THRESHOLD VALUES, BASED ON CATASTROPHE THEORY 
39 THl=((PJA/95 + PEC/95 + SLE/95)*PS)*1 .667 

TH2=( (PA/95 + PPF/95 + SLE/95)*PS)*1 .667 
C CHECK FOR THRESHOLD PENETRATION 

IF (TH1.GT.2.0R.TH2.GT.2) GO TO 40 
C THRESHOLD WAS NOT PENETRATED AND THE IMPULSE DECAYED 
C CALCULATE PRE-PROCESSOR FACTORS UNDER DECAY, 
C BASED ON ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR MODELS 



C 



FAC = (TH1+TH2)/10.5 
DP13 = (FAC**.5)/1.5 
CHECK VALUE OF ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIORS SCORE (AJB) 
IF (AJB.EQ.O) GO TO 70 
IF (AJB.EQ.l) GO TO 71 



28 



IF (AJB.EQ.2) GO TO 72 

IF (AJB.EQ.3) GO TO 73 

IF (AJB.EQ.4) GO TO 74 

IF (AJB.EQ.5) GO TO 75 
C DETERMINE PRE-PROCESSOR SCORE 
C WHEN AGGRESSION OCCURS 

70 PI13 = DP13 
GO TO 50 

C WHEN WITHDRAWAL OCCURS 

71 PI13 = (DP13-0.10) 
GO TO 76 

72 PI13 = DP13-0.20 
GO TO 76 

C WHEN COMPROMISE OCCURS 

73 PI13= (DP13-0.30) 
GO TO 76 

C WHEN ADAPTATION OCCURS 

74 PI13=(DP13-0.40) 
GOTO 76 

C WHEN CONSULTATION OCCURS 

75 PI13 = (DP13-0.50) 

76 IF (PI13) 77,50,50 

77 PI13 = 0.0 
GO TO 50 

40 CONTINUE 

C MAKE CATASTROPHE CALCULATIONS, USING THE CUSP CATASTROPHE MODEL 

XP13 = (0.3*(TH1/10)**2)**.3333 

YP13 = (0.3*(TH2/10)**2)**.3333 

CP13 = (XP13+YP13)*1.18 
C CHECK VALUE OF ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIORS SCORE (AJB) 

IF (AJB.EQ.O) GO TO 42 

IF (AJB.EQ.l) GO TO 43 

IF (AJB.EQ.2) GO TO 44 

IF (AJB.EQ.3) GO TO 45 

IF (AJB.EQ.4) GO TO 46 

IF (AJB.EQ.5) GO TO 47 
C WHEN AGGRESSION OCCURS DETERMINE THE PRE-PROCESSOR SCORE, 
C BASED ON ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR MODELS 
C 

42 PI13 = CP13 
GO TO 50 

C WHEN WITHDRAWAL OCCURS 

43 PI13 = (CP13-0.10) 
GO TO 48 

C WHEN SUBLIMATION OCCURS 

44 PI13 = (CP13-0.20) 
GO TO 48 

C WHEN COMPROMISE OCCURS 

45 PI13 = (CP13-0.30) 
GO TO 48 

C WHEN ADAPTATION OCCURS 

46 PI13 = (CP13-0.40) 
GO TO 48 



29 



C WHEN CONSULTATION OCCURS 

47 PI13 = (CP13-0.50) 

48 IF (PI13) 49,50,50 

49 PI13=0.0 
GO TO 50 

C COMPUTE THE TERMINAL VALUES AT EACH OF THE THIRTEEN NODES 

50 CONTINUE 

VN2 = VNA * VRA2 

VNJ = VN2 * VR2J 

VN16 = VNJ * VRJ16 + (VNA * VRA16) 

VN13 = VN23 * VR2313 + (VNJ * VRJ13)+PI13 

VNC = (VN13 * VR13C) + VNCI 

VN12 = (VN23 * VR2312) + (VNA * VRA12) + (VNC * VRC12) 

VN24 = (VN23 * VR2324) + (VN13 * VR1324) 

VN25 = (VN23 * VR2325) + (VN13 * VR1325) 
C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES A AND B FACILITATES CHECKING AND DEBUGGING 

A = (VNC * VRC10) + (VN16 * VR1610) + (VNJ * VRJ10) 

B = (VN23 * VR2310) + (VN12 * VR1210) + (VN25 * VR2510) 

VN10 = A + B 
C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES C AND D FACILITATES CHECKING AND DEBUGGING 

C = (VN10 * VR1011) + (VNA * VRA11) + (VNJ * VRJ11) 

D = (VNC * VRC11) + (VN25 * VR2511) 

VN11 = C + D 
C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES R, S AND T FACILITATES CHECKING AND DEBUGGING 

R = (VN11 * VR11I) + (VN2 * VR2I) + (VNJ * VRJI) 

S = (VN13 * VR13I) + (VN12 * VR12I) + (VN25 * VR25I) 

T = (VN24 * VR24I) 

VNI = R + S + T 
IF (OUT. EQ.O) GOTO 21 
C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS 
C PRINT OUT BASE CASE VALUES 

WRITE(6,700) 
WRITE(6,700) 
WRITE(6,608) 
WRITE(6,851) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,609)CSN0 

WRITE(6,700) 

IF(TH1.GT.2.0R.TH2.GT.2) GO TO 4 

WRITE(6,800) 

WRITE(6,700) 

GO TO 98 
4 WRITE(6,801) 

WRITE(6,700) 
98 WRITE(6,605) 
WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6, 540) 

WRITE(6,530) 

WRITE(6,540) 

WRITE(6,200)VN2, VNJ 

WRITE(6,300) VN16, VN13 

WRITE(6,400) VNC, VN12 

WRITE(6,500) VN24, VN25 



30 



VN10, 
VNI 



VN11 



'ENVIRONMENTAL 
'BEHAVIORAL 
'MANAGERIAL 
'PSYCHOLOGICAL 



(PI13)\PI13 

(VNCI)WNCI 

(VNA)\VNA 

(VN23)',VN23 



'FC2413',FC2413 
'FC2513',FC2513 
'FCIC \FCIC 
'VRCI ',VRCI 



BE 
OF 



FOR VARIABLES A, 
THEY DO NOT; J = 



ADDED TO INPUT AT TERMINAL 
VARIABLE J, FOR DEBUGGING 

B, C, D, R, S AND T; 

2 NO PRINTOUT 



WRITE(6,510) 

WRITE(6,520) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,606) 

WRITE(6,541) 

WRITE(6,541) 

WRITE(6,541) 

WRITE(6,541) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,604) 

WRITE(6,602) 

WRITE(6,602) 

WRITE(6,602) 

WRITE(6,602) 

WRITE(6,700) 
21 CONTINUE 

C TWO LINES PRINT660, ACCEPT 650, J NEED TO 
C PRINT SUBVARIABLES IF REQUESTED BY VALUE 
C INPUT THE PRINT CONTROL CHARACTERS 
C IF J = 1 THEY PRINT OUT, OTHERWISE 
J = 2 

IF (J.EQ.2) GO TO 3 

WRITE(6,600)'A',A,'B',B 

WRITE(6,600)'C\C,'D\D 

WRITE(6,600)'R',R,'S\S,'T\T 
C MAKE FEEDBACKLOOP COMPUTATIONS 

C CHECK TO SEE IF THERE IS A FEEDBACK LOOP FROM NODE 24 TO NODE 13 
3 IF (FC2413) 901,10,5 

C CALCULATE THE EFFECTS OF FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13 

C VFR2413 IS REPLACED BY X2413 BECAUSE OF VARIABLE NAME LENGTH RESTRICTIONS 
5 X2413 = FC2413 * VR1324 

C VF1NI IS THE FEEDBACK VALUE AT NODE I WHERE Fl DESIGNATES 
C THIS AS FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13, F2 IS FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13, ETC. 

VF1N13 = VN13 + (VN24 * X2413)+PI13 

VF1NC = VNCI + (VF1N13 * VR13C) 

VF1N12 = (VF1NC * VRC12) + (VN23 * VR2312) + (VNA * VRA12) 
= (VF1N13 * VR1324) + (VN23 * VR2324) 
= (VF1N13 * VR1324) + (VN23 * VR2325) 

SUBVARIABLES FA1 AND FBI FACILITATES CHECKING AND DEBUGGING 
+ (VNJ*VRJ10) + (VF1NC*VRC10) 
+ (VF1N12*VR1210) + (VF1N25*VR2510) 



VF1N24 
VF1N25 

C THE USE OF 

FA1 = (VN16*VR1610) 
FBI = (VN23*VR2310) 
VF1N10 = FA1 + FBI 

C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES 
FC1 = (VNA*VRA11) + 
FD1 = (VF1NC*VRC11) 



FC1 AND FD1 FACILITATES CHECKING AND DEBUGGING 
(VNJ*VRJ11) + (VF1N10*VR1011) 
+ (VF1N25*VR2511) 



VF1N11 = FC1+FD1 
C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FR1, FS1 AND FT1 FACILITATE CHECKING/DEBUGGING 

FR1 =(VF1N11*VR11I)+(VN2*VR2I)+(VNJ*VRJI) 

FS1 =(VF1N13*VR13I)+(VF1N12*VR12I)+(VF1N25*VR25I) 

FT1=(VF1N24*VR24I) 

VF1NI =FR1+FS1+FT1 

IF (OUT.EQ.O) GO TO 22 
C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS 
C PRINTOUT FEEDBACK CASE FOR LOOP 24 TO 13 



31 



WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,540) 

WRITE(6,531) 

WRITE(6,532) 

WRITE(6,540) 

WRITE(6,200)VN2,VNJ 

WRITE(6,300)VN16,VF1N13 

WRITE(6,400)VF1NC,VF1N12 

WRITE(6,500)VF1N24,VF1N25 

WRITE(6,510)VF1N10,VF1N11 

WRITE(6,520)VF1NI 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,601)'FC2413\FC2413 

WRITE(6,700) 
22 CONTINUE 
C CHECK TO SEE IF THERE IS A FEEDBACK LOOP FROM NODE 25 TO NODE 13 

10 IF (FC2513) 901,20,11 

C CALCULATE THE EFFECTS OF FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13 
C VFR2513 IS HEREAFTER REPLACED BY X2513 BECAUSE OF 
C VARIABLE NAME LENGTH RESTRICTIONS 

11 X2513 = FC2513*VR1325 

C START FROM DIFFERENT NODE 13 VALUES DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT 
C FEEDBACK ROUTE 24 TO 13 EXISTS 
C IF ROUTE 2413 EXISTS, THEN START FROM 
C VF1N13. OTHERWISE, START FROM VN13. 
IF (FC2413) 901,12,13 

12 VF2N13 = VN13+(VN25*X2513) 
GO TO 14 

13 VF2N13=VF1N13+(VN25*X2513)+PI13 

14 VF2NC=VNCI+(VF2N13*VR13C) 
VF2N12=(VF2NC*VRC12)+(VN23*VR2312)+(VNA*VRA12) 
VF2N24=(VF2N13*VR1324)+(VN23*VR2324) 
VF2N25=(VF2N13*VR1325)+(VN23*VR2325) 

C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FA2 AND FB2 FACILITATE CHECKING/DEBUGGING 

FA2 = (VN16*VR1610)+(VNJ*VRJ10)+(VF2NC*VRC10) 

FB2 =(VN23*VR2310)+(VF2N12*VR1210)+(VF2N25*VR2510) 

VF2N10 = FA2 + FB2 
C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FC2 AND FD2 FACILITATE CHECKING/DEBUGGING 

FC2 =(VNA*VRA11)+(VNJ*VRJ11)+(VF2N10*VR1011) 

FD2=(VF2NC*VRC11)+(VF2N25*VR2511) 

VF2N11 = FC2 + FD2 
C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FR2, FS2 & FT2 FACILITATE CHECKING/DEBUGGING 

FR2=(VF2N11*VR11I)+(VN2*VR2I)+(VNJ*VRJI) 

FS2=(VF2N13*VR13I)+(VF2N12*VR12I)+(VF2N25*VR25I) 

FT2= (VF2N24*VR24I) 

VF2NI = FR2 + FS2 + FT2 

IF (OUT.EQ.O)GO TO 23 
C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,540) 

WRITE(6,531) 

IF (FC2413) 901,17,16 
16 WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,532) 



32 



WRITE(6,534) 

17 WRITE(6,533) 
WRITE(6,540) 
WRITE(6,200)VN2,VNJ 
WRITE(6,300)VN16,VF2N13 
WRITE(6,400)VF2NC,VF2N12 
WRITE(6,500)VF2N24,VF2N25 
WRITE(6,510)VF2N10,VF2N11 
WRITE(6,520)VF2NI 
WRITE(6,700) 

IF (FC2513.GT.0.AND.FC2413.GT.0) GO TO 18 
IF (FC2513.EQ.0) GO TO 19 
IF (FC2413.EQ.0) GO TO 19 

18 WRITE(6,601)'FC2413\FC2413 

19 WRITE(6,601)'FC2513\FC2513 
WRITE(6,700) 

23 CONTINUE 

C CHECK TO SEE IF THERE IS A FEEDBACK LOOP FROM NODE I TO NODE C 

20 IF (FCIC) 901,902,30 

C CALCULATE THE EFFECTS OF FEEDBACK LOOP I TO C 

30 VFRIC = FCIC * VRCI 

C START FROM DIFFERENT VALUES, DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT OTHER 
C FEEDBACK ROUTES EXIST 

IF(FC2413.EQ.0.AND.FC2513.EQ.0) GO TO 31 

IF(FC2413.GT.O.AND.FC2513.GT.O) GO TO 32 

IF(FC2413.EQ.0.AND.FC2513.GT.0) GO TO 33 

IF(FC2413.GT.0.AND.FC2513.EQ.0) GO TO 34 
C THE FOLLOWING IS THE CASE WHERE ONLY FEEDBACK ROUTE 
C I TO C EXISTS 

31 VF3NC =VNC+(VNI*VFRIC) 
VF3N12=VN12+(VF3NC*VRC12) 
VF3N24=VN24 
VF3N25=VN25 

VF3N10=VN10+(VF3NC*VRC10)+(VF3N12*VR1210) 
VF3N11=VN11+(VF3N10*VR1011) 
VF3NI=VNI+(FV3N11*VR11I)+(VF3N12*VR12I) 
IF (OUT.EQ.O) GO TO 24 

C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS 
WRITE(6,700) 
WRITE(6,540) 
WRITE(6,531) 
WRITE(6,535) 
WRITE(6,540) 
WRITE(6,200)VN2,VNJ 
WRITE(6,300)VN16,VN13 
WRITE(6,400)VF3NC,VF3N12 
WRITE(6,500)VF3N24,VF3N25 
WRITE(6,510)VF3N10,VF3N11 
WRITE(6,520)VF3NI 
WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,601)'VFRIC\VFRIC 
WRITE(6,700) 

24 CONTINUE 
GO TO 902 



33 



C THE FOLLOWING IS FOR THE CASE WHERE FEEDBACK ROUTES 24 TO 13, 

C 25 TO 13 AND I TO C ALL EXIST 

32 VF2N13=VF1N13+(VN25*X2513)+(VNI*VFRIC)+PI13 

VF2NC=VNC+(VF2N13*VR13C) 

VF3NC=VF2NC+(VF2NI*VFRIC) 

VF3N12=(VF3NC*VRC12)+VF2N12 

VF3N24=(VF2N13*VR1324)+(VN23*VR2324) 

VF3N25=(VF2N13*VR1325)+(VN23*VR2325) 
C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FA3 AND FB3 FACILITATE CHECKING & DEBUGGING 

FA3 =(VN16*VR1610)+(VNJ*VRJ10)+(VF3NC*VRC10) 

FB3=(VN23*VR2310)+(VF3N12*VR1210)+(VF3N25*VR2510) 

VF3N10=FA3 + FB3 
C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FC3 AND FD3 FACILITATE CHECKING & DEBUGGING 

FC3=(VNA*VRA11)+(VNJ*VRJ11)+(VF3N10*VR1011) 

FD3=(VF3NC*VRC11)+(VF3N25*VR2511) 

VF3N11=FC3 + FD3 
C THE USE OF SUBVARIABLES FR3,FS3 & FT3 FACILITATE CHECKING & DEBUGGING 

FR3=(VF3N11*VR11I)+(VN2*VR2I)+(VNJ*VRJI) 

FS3=(VF2N13*VR13I)+(VF3N12*VR12I)+(VF3N25*VR25I) 

FT3=(VF3N24*VR24I) 

VF3NI=FR3+FS3+FT3 

IF (OUT.EQ.O) GO TO 25 
C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS 





WRITE 


(6,700) 






WRITE 


[6,540) 






WRITE 


[6,531) 






WRITE 


[6,535) 






WRITE 


[6,534) 






WRITE 


[6,533) 






WRITE 


[6,534] 






WRITE 


[6,532) 






WRITE 


[6,540) 






WRITE 


[6,200) 


VN2,VNJ 




WRITE 


[6,300) 


VN16,VF2N13 




WRITE 


[6,400) 


VF3NC,VF3N12 




WRITE 


[6,500) 


VF3N24,VF3N25 




WRITE 


[6,510) 


VF3N10,VF3N11 




WRITE 


[6,520) 


VF3NI 




WRITE 


[6,700) 






WRITE 


[6,601) 


'VFRIC',VFRIC 




WRITE 


[6,601) 


'FC2413\FC2413 




WRITE 


[6,601) 


'FC2513\FC2513 


2E 


» CONTINUE 






GO TO 


902 




C 


THE FOLLOWING IS 


1 FOR THE CASE WHERE FEEDBACK ROUTES 2413 AND 


C 


EXIST BUT 


ROUTE 


2513 DOES NOT 



IC 



34 VF3NC=VF1NC+(VF1NI*VFRIC) 

VF3N12=VF1N12+(VF3NC*VRC12) 

VF3N24=VF1N24 

VF3N25=VF1N25 

VF3N10=VF1N10+(VF3NC*VRC10) 

VF3N11=VF1N11+(VF3N10*VR1011) 

VF3NI=VF1NI+(VF3N11*VR11I)+(VF1N12*VR12I) 

IF (OUT.EQ.O) GO TO 26 



34 



C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,540) 

WRITE(6,531) 

WRITE(6,535) 

WRITE(6,534) 

WRITE(6,532) 

WRITE(6,540) 

WRITE(6,200)VN2,VNJ 

WRITE(6,300)VN16,VF1N13 

WRITE(6,400)VF3NC,VF3N12 

WRITE(6,500)VF3N24,VF3N25 

WRITE(6,510)VF3N10,VF3N11 

WRITE(6,520) VF3NI 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,601)'VFRIC\VFRIC 

WRITE(6,700) 
26 CONTINUE 

GO TO 902 
C THE FOLLOWING IS THE CASE WHERE FEEDBACK ROUTES 2513 AND IC 
C EXIST BUT ROUTE 2413 DOES NOT 
33 VX13=(VN25*X2513)+VN13+PI13 

VF3NC=VNCI+(VX13*VR13C)+(VNI*VFRIC) 

VF3N12=(VN23*VR2312)+(VNA*VRA12)+(VF3NC*VRC12) 

VF3N24=(VX13*VR1324)+(VN23*VR2324) 

VF3N25=VN25 

VF3N10=(VF3NC*VRC10)+VNC 

VF3N11=(VF3N10*VR1011)+VN11 

VF3NI=(VF3N11*VR11I)+VNI 

IF (OUT.EQ.O) GO TO 902 
C PRINT DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,540) 

WRITE(6,531) 

WRITE(6,535) 

WRITE(6,534) 

WRITE(6,533) 

WRITE(6,540) 

WRITE(6,200)VN2,VNJ 

WRITE(6,300)VN16,VX13 

WRITE(6,400)VF3NC,VF3N12 

WRITE(6,500)VF3N24,VF3N25 

WRITE(6,510)VF3N10,VF3N11 

WRITE(6,520)VF3NI 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,601)'VFRIC\VFRIC 
902 CONTINUE 

IF (SOUT.EQ.O) GO TO 27 
C PRINT NETWORK SUMMARY REPORTS 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,710) 

WRITE(6,711) 

WRITE(6,700) 



35 



WRITE(6,609)CSNO 

IF (TH1.GT.2.0R.TH2.GT.2) GO TO 28 

WRITE(6,800) 

GO TO 29 

28 WRITE(6,801) 

29 CONTINUE 
WRITE(6,700) 
WRITE(6,712) 
WRITE(6,700) 
WRITE(6,713) 
WRITE(6,714) 
WRITE(6,715) 

C MAKE %MAX CALCULATIONS FOR THE SUMMARY REPORT 
C SELECT THE MOST RECENT DATA 

IF (FC2413.GT.0.OR.FC2513.GT.0.OR.FCIC.GT.0) GO TO 99 

Z = VNI 

X = VN16 

Y = VN12 
GO TO 97 

99 Z = VF3NI 
X = VN16 

Y = VF3N12 

97 VNIM = (Z/150)*100.0 

IF(VNIM.GT.IOO) GO TO 9 

GO TO 8 
9 VNIM=100 
8 VN12M = (Y/40)*100. 

IF(VN12M.GT.100) GO TO 2 

GO TO 1 
2 VN12M=100 
1 VN16M = (X/3)*100. 

IF(VN16M.GT.100) GO TO 91 

GO TO 93 
91 VN16M=100 
93 WRITE(6,716) Z,VNIM 

WRITE(6,717)Y,VN12M 

WRITE(6,718)X,VN16M 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,700) 
27 IF (REM.EQ.O) GO TO 15 
C PRINT MANAGEMENT REPORT 

WRITE(6,720) 

WRITE(6,721) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,609)CSNO 

WRITE(6,700) 
C MAKE % DEATHS (PD) CALCULATION 

IF (Z.GT.30) GO TO 201 

PD = (.40)*Z 

GO TO 6 

201 IF(Z.GT.90) GO TO 202 
PD = ((1.0667)*Z)-20.0 
GO TO 6 

202 PD = ((.3333)*Z)+46.0 



36 



IF (PD.GT.100) GO TO 7 

GO TO 6 
7 PD=100 

C MAKE CHANCES OF BEING KILLED (XIC) CALCULATIONS 
6 XIC = (Z/137.3) * 12.5 
C 700??? 

WRITE(6,700) 
C 700??? 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,722)PD 

WRITE(6,723) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,725) 

IF(XIC.GT.10)G0 TO 41 

IF(XIC.EQ.IO) GO TO 41 

WRITE(6,727)XIC 

GOTO 35 
41 CIC = 9.99 

WRITE(6,727)CIC 
15 CONTINUE 
35 IF(GRF.EQ.O) GOTO 994 

C THIS ROUTINE GENERATES GRAPHICS BY PRINTING BAR CHARTS 
C OF THE % FATALITIES 
C 
C PRINT HEADINGS 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,810) 

WRITE(6,811) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,609)CSN0 
C 

C CALCULATE THE VARIABLES THAT DETERMINE THE HEIGHT OF THE BAR 
C CHARTS, Nl, N2 AND N3, WHICH ARE THE NUMBERS OF LINE DISTANCES 
C BELOW THE 100% POINT ON THE ORDINATE. 

Nl= (100.00-VNIM)/10.0 

N2 = (100.00-VN12M)/10.0 

N3 = (100.00 -VN16M)/10.0 
C 

C GENERATE BEHAVIORAL GRAPHICS REPORT 
C PRINT REPORT HEADING 
C 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,823) 

WRITE(6,820) 

WRITE(6,700) 

IF (N1.LT.5) GO TO 110 
C PRINT THE TOP PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE 



37 



WRITE(6,814) 

DO 100, I = 1,4 

WRITE(6,817) 
100 CONTINUE 

IF (N1.EQ.5) GO TO 102 

WRITE(6,819) 

IF (N1.EQ.6) GO TO 105 
C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER 

M = (Nl-6) 
C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITHOUT DATA 

DO 107, 1=1, M 

WRITE(6,817) 

107 CONTINUE 

IF (N1.EQ.10) GO TO 104 
C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER 
105 N = (10-N1) 
C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITH DATA 

DO 108, 1= 1,N 

WRITE(6,815) 

108 CONTINUE 
GO TO 104 

C FOLLOWING IS THE CASE WHERE Nl EQUALS 5 

C PRINT THE 50% LINE AND ALL OTHERS BELOW IT WITH DATA 

102 WRITE(6,816) 
DO 103, 1=1,4 
WRITE(6,815) 

103 CONTINUE 

C PRINT THE ORIGIN LINE 

104 WRITE(6,818) 
GO TO 120 

C 

C THE FOLLOWING IS FOR THE CASE WHERE Nl IS LESS THAN 5 

C 

110 IF (Nl.EQ.O) GO TO 117 
WRITE(6,814) 

IF (Nl.EQ.l) GO TO 118 
C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITHOUT DATA 
N = Nl-1 
DO 111, I = 1,N 
WRITE(6,817) 

111 CONTINUE 

C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITH DATA 
M = 5 - Nl 
DO 112, I = 1,M 
WRITE(6,815) 

112 CONTINUE 
GO TO 116 

C CASE WHERE Nl EQUALS ZERO 

117 WRITE(6,813) 

C CASE WHERE Nl EQUALS ZERO OR ONE 

118 DO 114, I = 1,4 
WRITE(6,815) 

114 CONTINUE 

C COMPLETE THE SCALE WITH DATA 



38 



116 WRITE(6,816) 

DO 113, I = 1,4 

WRITE(6,815) 
113 CONTINUE 

WRITE(6,818) 
C 

C GENERATE PSYCHOLOGICAL GRAPHICS REPORT 
C 

120 WRITE(6,700) 
WRITE(6,700) 
WRITE(6,824) 
WRITE(6,821) 
WRITE(6,700) 

IF (N2.LT.5) GO TO 131 
C PRINT THE TOP PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE 
WRITE(6,814) 
DO 121, I = 1,4 
WRITE(6,817) 

121 CONTINUE 

IF (N2.EQ.5) GO TO 123 

WRITE(6,819) 

IF (N2.EQ.6) GO TO 126 
C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER 

M= (N2-6) 
C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITHOUT DATA 

DO 128, 1=1, M 

WRITE(6,817) 

128 CONTINUE 
IF(N2.EQ.10) GO TO 125 

C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER 

126 N = (10-N2) 

C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITH DATA 

DO 129, 1=1, N 

WRITE(6,815) 

129 CONTINUE 
GO TO 125 

C FOLLOWING IS THE CASE WHERE N2 EQUALS 5 

C PRINT THE 50% LINE AND ALL OTHERS BELOW IT WITH DATA 

123 WRITE(6,816) 
DO 124, 1=1,4 
WRITE(6,815) 

124 CONTINUE 

C PRINT THE ORIGIN LINE 

125 WRITE(6,818) 
GO TO 141 

C THE FOLLOWING IS FOR THE CASE WHERE N2 IS LESS THAN 5 

C 

131 IF (N2.EQ.0) GO TO 138 

WRITE(6,814) 

IF (N2.EQ.1) GO TO 139 
C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITHOUT DATA 

N = N2-1 

DO 132, 1=1, N 

WRITE(6,817) 



39 



132 CONTINUE 

C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITH DATA 
M=5-N2 

DO 133, 1=1, M 
WRITE(6,815) 

133 CONTINUE 
GO TO 137 

C CASE WHERE N2 EQUALS ZERO 

138 WRITE(6,813) 

C CASE WHERE N2 EQUALS ZERO OR ONE 

139 DO 135, 1=1,4 
WRITE(6,815) 

135 CONTINUE 

C COMPLETE THE SCALE WITH DATA 

137 WRITE(6,816) 

DO 134, 1=1,4 

WRITE(6,815) 

134 CONTINUE 
WRITE(6,818) 

C 

C GENERATE MANAGEMENT GRAPHICS REPORT 

C 

141 WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,700) 

WRITE(6,825) 

WRITE(6,822) 

WRITE(6,700) 

IF (N3.LT.5) GO TO 160 
C PRINT THE TOP PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE 

WRITE(6,814) 

DO 150, 1=1,4 

WRITE(6,817) 
150 CONTINUE 

IF (N3.EQ.5) GO TO 152 

WRITE(6,819) 

IF (N3.EQ.6) GO TO 155 
C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER 

M = (N3-6) 
C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITHOUT DATA 

DO 157, 1=1, M 

WRITE(6,817) 

157 CONTINUE 

IF (N3.EQ.10) GO TO 154 
C SET THE DO LOOP COUNTER AND RUN THE DO LOOP 
155 N = (10-N3) 
C PRINT THE LOWER PART OF THE ORDINATE SCALE WITH DATA 

DO 158, 1=1, N 

WRITE(6,815) 

158 CONTINUE 
GO TO 154 

C FOLLOWING IS THE CASE WHERE N3 EQUALS 5 
C PRINT THE 50% LINE AND ALL OTHERS BELOW IT WITH DATA 
152 WRITE(6,816) 
DO 153, 1=1,4 



40 



WRITE(6,815) 

153 CONTINUE 

C PRINT THE ORIGIN LINE 

154 WRITE(6,818) 
GO TO 994 

C THE FOLLOWING IS FOR THE CASE WHERE N3 IS LESS THAN 5 
C 

160 IF (N3.EQ.0) GO TO 167 
WRITE(6,814) 

IF (N3.EQ.1) GO TO 168 
C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITHOUT DATA 
N =N3-1 
DO 161, 1=1, N 
WRITE(6,817) 

161 CONTINUE 

C SET COUNTER AND PRINT ORDINATE WITH DATA 
M=5-N3 

DO 162, 1= 1,M 
WRITE(6,815) 

162 CONTINUE 
GO TO 166 

C CASE WHERE N3 EQUALS ZERO 

167 WRITE(6,813) 

C CASE WHERE N3 EQUALS ZERO OR ONE 

168 DO 164, 1= 1,4 
WRITE(6,815) 

164 CONTINUE 

C COMPLETE THE SCALE WITH DATA 

166 WRITE(6,816) 

DO 163, I = 1,4 

WRITE(6,815) 

163 CONTINUE 
WRITE(6,818) 
WRITE(6,700) 
GO TO 1890 

901 WRITE(6,521) 

C SET VALUES FOR CHANGES IN PROGRAM, FOR CONTINUE INPUT 

C AS FOR NEW CASE, 1 TO RETURN TO LINE 994 TO CHANGE MENU 

C TEST AS I.E., IF( .EQ. ) GO TO APPROPRIATE PLACE 

1890 ICHGE=0 

C ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PRECESSOR CHANGE 

ICHGP=0 
C PSYCHOLOGICAL PRE-PROCESSOR CHANGE 

ICHGB=0 
C BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSOR CHANGE 

ICHGM=0 
C MANAGEMENT PRE-PROCESSOR CHANGE 

ICHGF=0 
C FEEDBACK COEFICIENT CHANGE 

IRUN=0 
C RUN PROGRAM AFTER CHANGES 

IREP=0 
C CHANGE REPORT FORMATS FOR RUN 
994 WRITE(*,'(A) , )'ODO YOU WANT TO:' 



41 



WRITE(* 
WRITE(* 
WRITE(* 
WRITE(* 
WRITE(* 
WRITE(* 
WRITE(* 
WRITE(6 
WRITE(* 
WRITE(* 
WRITE(* 
WRITE(* 
WRITE(* 
WRITE(* 



READ(*,1200) 



IF(ICHO 
IF(ICHO 
IF(ICHO 
IF(ICHO 
IF(ICHO 
IF(ICHO 
IF(ICHO 
IF(ICHO 
IF(ICHO 
IF(ICHO 



'(A) 
'(A) 
'(A) 
'(A) 
'(A) 
'(A) 
'(A) 
700) 
'(A) 
'(A) 
'(A) 
'(A) 
'(A) 
'(A) 



EQ 

EQ 

EQ 

EQ 

EQ 

EQ 

EQ 

EQ.8 

EQ.O 

GT.8 



')' CHANGE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE- PROCESSORS: 


r 


')' CHANGE PSYCHOLOGICAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 


2' 


')' CHANGE BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 


3' 


')' CHANGE MANAGERIAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 


4' 


')' CHANGE FEEDBACK LOOPS: 


5' 


')' START A NEW CASE: 


6' 


')' CHANGE REPORT FORMATS: 


7' 


')' RUN THE PROGRAM WITH THESE CHANGES: 


8' 


')' QUIT THIS PROGRAM: 


0' 


')' YOU WILL BE RETURNED TO THIS MENU AFTER EACH' 


')' CHANGE UNTIL YOU ARE READY TO RE-RUN 


THE CASE,' 


')' START A NEW CASE, OR QUIT' 




')' ENTER NUMBER OF YOUR CHOICE' 




ICHO 




) GO TO 996 




) GO TO 992 




) GO TO 993 




) GO TO 991 




) GO TO 997 




) GO TO 1701 




) GO TO 2055 




) GO TO 1850 




) GO TO 995 




) GO TO 994 





C LOOPS FOR CHANGES IN VARIABLES VALUES 

991 ICHGM=1 
GO TO 1840 

992 ICHGP=1 
GO TO 1820 

993 ICHGB=1 
GO TO 1830 

C IQUIT IS VARIABLE TO INDICATE ENDING OF PROGRAM 

995 WRITE(*,'(A)')' YOU MAY NOW TERMINATE THE PROGRAM. 
WRITE(*,'(A)')' TYPE 1 TO CONTINUE.' 

READ(*, 1200) IQUIT 
IF(IQUIT.EQ.0)GO TO 999 
IF(IQUIT.EQ.l) GO TO 994 

996 ICHGE=1 
'(A)')' CHANGE ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PROCESSORS, OR ' 
'(A)')' INDICATE THE INDIVIDUAL PRE-PROCESSOR TO BE CHANGE 



TYPE TO END,' 



1810 



WRITE(* 

WRITE(* 

D.' 

WRITE(* 

ANGE,' 

WRITE(* 

WRITE(* 

10' 
WRITE(* 

r 

WRITE(* 

2' 
WRITE(* 

3' 
WRITE(* 



'(A)')' THE PROGRAM WILL RETURN TO THIS MENU AFTER EACH CH 

'(A)')' UNTIL YOU INDICATE YOU ARE FINISHED.' 

'(A)')' CHANGE ALL ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PROCESSORS 

'(A)')' JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) 

'(A)')' PERCEIVED PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIGUE (PPF) 

'(A)')' PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY AND ESTEEM (PJA) 

'(A)')' PERCEIVED ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND JOB REWARDS (PEC) 



42 



1 4' 




WRITE(*, 
1 5' 


'(A)') 


WRITE(*, 
1 6' 


'(A)') 


WRITE(*, 
1 7' 


'(A)') 


WRITE(*, 
1 8' 


'(A)') 


WRITE(*, 
1 9' 


'(A)') 


WRITE(*, 
1 0' 


'(A)') 



' STRESSFUL LIFE EVENT SCORE (SLE) 

' PHYSIOLOGICAL STATE (PS) 

' FOREMANS MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) 

' ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) 

' ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) 

' FINISHED CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL PRE-PROCESSORS 



C THE VARIABLE IEPR IS AN INDICATOR FOR WHICH PRE-PROCESSOR TO CHANGE 

READ(*,1200)IEPR 

IF(IEPR.EQ.IO) GO TO 1811 

IF(IEPR.EQ.l) GO TO 1303 

IF(IEPR.EQ.2) GO TO 1302 

IF(IEPR.EQ.3) GO TO 1305 

IF(IEPR.EQ.4) GO TO 1307 

IF(IEPR.EQ.5) GO TO 1309 

IF(IEPR.EQ.6) GO TO 1311 

IF(IEPR.EQ.7) GO TO 1313 

IF(IEPR.EQ.8) GO TO 1315 

IF(IEPR.EQ.9) GO TO 1317 

IF(IEPR.EQ.O) GO TO 994 
C PUT ERROR ROUTINE HERE 
997 ICHGF=1 

GO TO 1860 
999 END 



43 



APPENDIX B. —PRINTOUTS FROM BAS FOR SAMPLE CASES 

BAS QUESTION AND ANSWER DIALOG FOR CASE #1 

IF YOU WISH TO SEE DETAILED OUTPUT REPORTS 

TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 

1 

THERE ARE A VARIETY OF REPORTS AND GRAPHS WHICH YOU 

MIGHT LIKE TO HAVE PRINTED OUT. 

TYPE 1 TO CHOOSE ONE OR MORE. OTHERWISE TYPE 

1 

IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE NETWORK FLOW SUMMARY REPORT 

TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 

1 

IF YOU WANT TO SEE THE MANAGEMENT REPORT, TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 

1 

IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE GRAPH OF THE RESULTS, TYPE 1, OTHERWISE TYPE 

1 

ENTER DATA FOR THE PSYCHOLOGICAL STATE PRE-PROCESSOR 

ENTER ONLY OR 1, NO OTHER 

FOR TRAINING: 1 = PERSON HAS BEEN TRAINED IN PATTERN RECOGNITION 

= NO TRAINING, OR DO NOT KNOW 



FOR ALERTNESS: 1 = POOR OBSERVER, MISSES DETAILS 

= HIGHLY ALERT, VERY OBSERVANT OR DO NOT KNOW 

1 

FOR DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES: 1 = POOR DISCRIMINATOR 

PERSON MIGHT NOT KNOW APPROPRIATE ACTION IN AN EMERGENCY 

= GOOD DISCRIMINATOR, KNOWS APPROPRIATE ACTION OR DO NOT KNOW 

1 

ENTER DATA FOR MANAGERIAL PRE-PROCESSOR 

YOU MAY ENTER ANY NUMBER FROM TO 1.0; 

MODAL VALUE =0.50 

1.0 = TOP MANAGEMENT SHOWS THE MAXIMUM CONCERN POSSIBLE 

FOR SAFETY; = TOP MANAGEMENT SHOWS MINIMUM 

CONCERN FOR SAFETY. VALUES RANGE FROM TO 1.0. 

1.0 

ENTER DATA FOR BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSOR 

FOR VOLATILITY: 1 = PERSON IS UNINFORMED, 

GOES OFF HALF-COCKED OR SELDOM LOOKS BEFORE HE LEAPS 

OR TAKES UNNECESSARY RISKS 

= LOW OR NO RISK TAKING, OR DO NOT KNOW 

1 

FOR MACHOISM: 1 = DOES THINGS HIS OWN WAY, HAS 

LITTLE REGARD FOR RULES, CONVENTIONS OR PROCEDURES 

= LOW MACHOISM OR DO NOT KNOW 

1 

FOR CONSISTENCY: 1 = PERSON SHOWS CONSISTENT BEHAVIORS 

= BEHAVIORS CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY, OR DO NOT KNOW 





44 



DO YOU WANT TO INCLUDE FEEDBACK LOOPS? TYPE 1 FOR YES 

TYPE FOR NO. 

1 

INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 25 TO 13. 

VALUES CAN BE FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE = .20 

.20 

INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP 24 TO 13 

VALUES CAN BE FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE = .20 

.20 

INPUT FC VALUE FOR FEEDBACK LOOP I TO C 

VALUES CAN BE FROM TO 1.0; MODAL VALUE = .20 

.20 

ENTER DATA FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE- PROCESSOR SCALES. 

IF YOU CANNOT DETERMINE A SCALE VALUE, TYPE 

TO ABORT THE PROGRAM. 

ENTER THE SCALE VALUE FOR JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCE (PA) 

RANGE 10-100, 10=L0W 

100 

ENTER A VALUE FOR PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIGUE (PPF) 

RANGE 10-100, 10=LOW 

100 

ENTER A VALUE FOR PERCEIVED JOB AND ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) 

RANGE 10-100, 10=LOW 

100 

ENTER A VALUE FOR PERCEIVED ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND JOB 

REWARD (PEC). RANGE 10-100, 10=HIGH 

100 

ENTER A VALUE FOR STRESSFUL PERSONAL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) 

ENTER ANY NUMBER FROM TO 100. 

100 = MAXIMUM, = NO STRESSFUL EVENTS 

100 

ENTER A VALUE FOR PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITY STATE (PS) 

ENTER EITHER 1 OR 2. 1=ADEQUATE, 2=INADEQUATE 

1 

DETERMINE THE VALUE OF FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) 

RATE THE FOLLOWING SIX CRITERIA, EITHER 1 OR 

1 = HE HAS THE SKILL; 0= HE DOES NOT HAVE THE SKILL 

LEADERSHIP SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 

1 

INTERPERSONAL SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 



TECHNICAL SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 



PLANNING SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 



COMMUNICATION SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 



DIRECTING SKILL, ENTER 1 OR 



ENTER ONE NUMBER FOR ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIORS (XAJB) 

CHOOSE EITHER: 0=AGGRESSION, ^WITHDRAWAL, 2=SUBLIMATI0N 

3=C0MPR0MISE, 4=ADAPTATI0N, 5=C0NSULTATI0N 





45 



ENTER A VALUE FOR ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) 

ENTER 1 IF INDIVIDUAL ADJUSTS OWN BEHAVIOR WITHOUT 

FOREMAN INVOLVEMENT OR 

ENTER IF FOREMAN CONTROLS INDIVIDUALS ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR 





ENTER A NAME FOR THIS CASE : 

EACH RUN OF THIS PROGRAM WILL HAVE A UNIQUE 5-DIGIT NAME: 

#1 

File name missing or blank - Please enter name 

UNIT 6? 

CASE1 



DO YOU WANT TO: 

CHANGE ENVIRONMENTAL PRE- PROCESSORS: 1 

CHANGE PSYCHOLOGICAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 2 

CHANGE BEHAVIORAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 3 

CHANGE MANAGERIAL PRE-PROCESSORS: 4 

CHANGE FEEDBACK LOOPS: 5 

START A NEW CASE: 6 

CHANGE REPORT FORMATS: 7 

RUN THE PROGRAM WITH THESE CHANGES: 8 

QUIT THIS PROGRAM: 



YOU WILL BE RETURNED TO THIS MENU AFTER EACH 
CHANGE UNTIL YOU ARE READY TO RE-RUN THE CASE, 
START A NEW CASE, OR QUIT 
ENTER NUMBER OF YOUR CHOICE 




YOU MAY NOW TERMINATE THE PROGRAM. 

TYPE 1 TO CONTINUE. 





TYPE TO END, 



46 

BAS OUTPUTS FOR CASE #1 
THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE: 



ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI13) 

JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) = 100.00 

PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF) = 100.00 

PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) = 100.00 

ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) = 100.00 

STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) = 100.00 

PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) = 1.00 

FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) = 1.00 

ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) = .00 

ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) = .00 



PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23) 

TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) = .00 

ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) = 1.00 

DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) = 1.00 



TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA) 

CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) = 1.00 



BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI) 

VOLATILITY (Yl) = 1.00 

MACHOISM (Y2) = 1.00 

CONSISTENCY (Y3) = .00 

INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) = 1.00 



47 



DETAILED OUTPUT REPORT 

CASE : #1 
A BEHAVIORAL THRESHOLD WAS PENETRATED 

NETWORK FLOW OUTPUTS 



ENTROPY 


VALUES WITH FEEDBACK 




LOOP 24 TO 13 






AND 






LOOP 25 TO 13 




VN2= 


.037 VNJ= 


.030 


VN16= 


.073 VN13= 


5.424 


VNC= 


6.594 VN12= 


7.026 


VN24= 


5.486 VN25= 


5.726 


VN10= 


16.490 VN11= 


23.344 


VNI = 


37.541 






FC2413 


.200 




FC2513 


.200 


ENTROPY 


VALUES WITH FEEDBACK 




LOOP I TO C 






AND 






LOOP 25 TO 13 






AND 






LOOP 24 TO 13 




VN2= 


.037 VNJ= 


.030 


VN16= 


.073 VN13= 


9.806 


VNC= 


20.371 VN12= 


24.342 


VN24= 


8.817 VN25= 


9.276 


VN10= 


44.409 VN11= 


60.811 


VNI = 


89.896 






VFRIC 


= .200 




FC2413 


.200 




FC2513 


.200 



48 



SUMMARY REPORT 



CASE:#1 
A BEHAVIORAL THRESHOLD WAS PENETRATED 



RESULTS AT LAST CYCLE: 



RAW %MAX 
SCORE SCORE 



BEHAVIORAL ERRORS 89.9 60. 
PSYCHOLOGICAL ERRORS 24.3 61. 
MANAGEMENT ERRORS .1 2. 



MANAGEMENT REPORT 
CASE:#1 



75.9 % OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING THESE CIRCUMSTANCES 
MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR 



THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES 
ARE 8.18 IN 10 



49 



% FATALITIES BY SOURCES 
CASE:#1 



100 



BEHAVIORAL SOURCES 



% FATALITIES 50- 



0- 



** 
** 
** 
** 
** 
** 
** 



100- 



PSYCHOLOGICAL SOURCES 



% FATALITIES 50- 



** 
** 
** 
** 
** 
** 
** 
** 



100- 



% FATALITIES 50- 



MANAGEMENT SOURCES 



** 
** 



50 



CASE: #2 

THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE: 

ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI 13) 

JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) = 100.00 

PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF) = 100.00 

PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) - 100.00 

ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) = 100.00 

STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) = 100.00 

PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) = 1.00 

FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) = 6.00 

ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) = .00 

ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) = .00 

PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23) 

TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) = .00 

ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) = 1.00 

DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) = 1.00 

TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA) 

CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) = 1.00 

BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI) 

VOLATILITY (Yl) = 1.00 

MACHOISM (Y2) = 1.00 

CONSISTENCY (Y3) = .00 

INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) = 1.00 



MANAGEMENT REPORT 
CASE: #2 



57.2 % OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING THESE CIRCUMSTANCES 
MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR 



THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES 
ARE 6.59 IN 10 



51 



CASE: #3 

THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE: 

ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI13) 

JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) = 10.00 

PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF) = 10.00 

PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) = 10.00 

ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) = 100.00 

STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) = 10.00 

PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) = 1.00 

FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) = 6.00 

ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) = .00 

ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) = .00 

PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23) 

TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) = .00 

ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) = 1.00 

DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) = 1.00 

TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA) 

CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) = 1.00 

BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI) 

VOLATILITY (Yl) = 1.00 

MACHOISM (Y2) = 1.00 

CONSISTENCY (Y3) = .00 

INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) = 1.00 



MANAGEMENT REPORT 
CASE: #3 



37.4 % OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING THESE CIRCUMSTANCES 
MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR 



THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES 
ARE 4.90 IN 10 



52 



CASE: #4 

THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE: 

ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI 13) 

JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) = 10.00 

PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF) = 10.00 

PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) = 10.00 

ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) = 10.00 

STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) = 100.00 

PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) = 1.00 

FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) = 6.00 

ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) = .00 

ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) = .00 

PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23) 

TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) = .00 

ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) = 1.00 

DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) = 1.00 

TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA) 

CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) = 1.00 

BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI) 

VOLATILITY (Yl) = 1.00 

MACHOISM (Y2) = 1.00 

CONSISTENCY (Y3) = .00 

INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) = 1.00 



MANAGEMENT REPORT 
CASE: #4 



6.8 % OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING THESE CIRCUMSTANCES 
MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR 



THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES 
ARE 1.54 IN 10 



53 



CASE: BEST 

THE INPUT DATA FOR THIS CASE ARE: 

ENVIRONMENTAL DATA (PI 13) 

JOB PHYSICAL ANNOYANCES (PA) = 10.00 

PRODUCTION PRESSURE AND FATIQUE (PPF) = 10.00 

PERCEIVED JOB/ROLE AMBIGUITY (PJA) = 10.00 

ECONOMIC CLIMATE AND REWARD (PEC) = 10.00 

STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS (SLE) = .00 

PHYSIOLOGICAL ABILITIES (PS) = 1.00 

FOREMAN MANAGERIAL ABILITIES (XMA) = 6.00 

ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR (XAJB) = 5.00 

ADJUSTIVE BEHAVIOR OVERRIDE (AJBO) = .00 

PSYCHOLOGICAL DATA (VN23) 

TRAINING IN PATTERN RECOGNITION (XI) = 1.00 

ALERTNESS AND OBSERVATION (X2) = .00 

DISCRIMINATORY ABILITIES (X3) = .00 

TOP MANAGEMENT DATA (VNA) 

CONCERN FOR SAFETY (XNA) = 1.00 

BEHAVIORAL DATA (VNCI) 

VOLATILITY (Yl) = .00 

MACHOISM (Y2) = .00 

CONSISTENCY (Y3) = 1.00 

INFLUENCE ON OTHERS (Y4) = .00 



MANAGEMENT REPORT 
CASE : BEST 



.6 % OF ALL CREW MEMBERS EXPERIENCING THESE CIRCUMSTANCES 
MAY BE KILLED WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR 



THE SUBJECTS CHANCES OF BEING KILLED UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES 
ARE .13 IN 10 



U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1988 - 547-000/80,063 | N "|- _ B (j gp MINES PGH PA 28749 



o c 



U.S. Department of the Interior 
Bureau of Min e* Prod, and Distr. 
Cochrans Mill Road 
P.O. Box 18070 
Pittsburgh, Pa. 15236 



OFFICIAL BUSINESS 
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